The Democrats’ looming stalemate

What happened

Sen. Barack Obama swept the Democratic Party’s “Potomac primaries” this week, edging ahead of Sen. Hillary Clinton for the first time in the delegate count and raising the prospect that the race for the presidential nomination may have to be settled at the Democratic convention in August. Obama’s wins in Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia came by wide margins—he won 64 percent of the vote in Maryland, 75 percent in D.C.—and extended his winning streak to eight consecutive primaries since he and Clinton split the available delegates on Super Tuesday. Obama now has 1,114 pledged delegates against Clinton’s 989. Exit polls showed Obama making inroads with demographic groups that had previously eluded him, including women, Hispanics, and older white voters, but to win the nomination outright, he’d have to win most of the remaining primaries by large margins.

Clinton, meanwhile, insisted that her campaign was on track, and that her energies were focused on the delegate-rich states of Texas and Ohio, where large Hispanic and working-class populations, respectively, favor her. Nevertheless, Clinton this week replaced several top staffers—including her campaign manager—and began an aggressive effort to woo the 796 “superdelegates,” whose support could be decisive.

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The superdelegates—party officials and officeholders—can vote however they want, and most of these insiders so far lean toward Clinton. In a clear preview of the possible fight to come, Obama began arguing this week that should he arrive at the convention having won more regular delegates, “it would be problematic for the political insiders to overturn the judgment of the voters.”

What the editorials said

“What a ride,” said Newsday. The Clinton/Obama race is the most competitive and interesting in memory, and it has brought Democratic primary voters out in record-breaking numbers. That’s why it would be such a shame to see the nomination decided not by voters but by superdelegates and the “arm-twisting, multiple ballots, and deal-making of the old smoke-filled rooms.” That would be a “sorry end” to a race that, so far at least, has shown democracy in its most flattering light.

A brokered convention would be nothing short of a nightmare for the Democrats, said the Chicago Tribune—and a familiar one at that. If Clinton arrives at the convention having won fewer primary delegates than Obama, yet gets crowned the nominee by her superdelegate friends, “rank-and-file Democrats” will be as outraged as they were in 2000, when George W. Bush became the president despite losing the popular vote to Al Gore. They’ll know whom to blame as well, “and it won’t be the Supreme Court.”

What the columnists said

Obama has this race all but won, said Dick Morris in Realclear politics.com. The fervor propelling his candidacy will only grow now that he’s snatched the lead away from Hillary, who foolishly positioned herself as the safe, establishment candidate, instead of the candidate of change. Don’t count Hillary out quite yet, said John Dickerson in Slate.com. The women and working-class Democrats who support her are highly committed, and if the race does come down to the party’s backrooms, the Clintons “know how to play the game.”

If the Democratic race ends in a bitter showdown at the convention in Denver, said Harold Meyerson in The Washington Post, the only winner “would be John McCain.” I suspect and hope that the so-called superdelegates will realize this, and rally around whichever of the candidates wins more delegates in the primaries.

How sweet would it be for Republicans if the Clinton/Obama race ended up in a lawsuit? said Theodore Olsen in The Wall Street Journal. As one of the attorneys who argued for George W. Bush before the Supreme Court during the 2000 Florida recounts, I look forward to the trip down memory lane. Not to take sides, but “I’d be more than happy to loan Sen. Obama the winning briefs.”

What next?

After Tuesday’s Wisconsin primary and Hawaii caucuses, there will be no contests until the March 4 primaries in Texas and Ohio—and that break gives Clinton an opportunity to stop Obama’s galloping momentum. Three weeks “is long enough to rewrite the campaign’s narrative yet again,” said Walter Shapiro in Salon.com, especially since the two candidates will debate at least twice. “But Hillary Clinton needs something fast to stop Barack Obama—the Democratic candidate who has replaced her husband as the Man from Hope.”