Obama and Clinton battle to a draw

What happened

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama each claimed a modest victory in this week’s Super Tuesday primaries, leaving them virtuallyeven in the battle for the Democratic nomination. With 22 states and more than 1,700 delegates at stake, neither candidate delivered the knockout blow they had hoped for. Clinton won the largest prizes, including New York, California, Massachusetts, and New Jersey, while Obama carried more states overall, including a string in the South, the battleground states of Connecticut and Missouri, and his home state of Illinois. Overall, both candidates won about the same number of delegates.

An overwhelming majority of black voters went for Obama, and so did most white men and young people. Clinton won handily among Hispanics, white women, and older voters. Clinton won Massachusetts despite Ted and Caroline Kennedy’s endorsement of Obama. With its big-state victories, the Clinton campaign contended that it had stopped Obama’s momentum. Obama’s campaign said the results showed that his popularity was still growing, and that in the primaries to come he would overtake Clinton.

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What the editorials said

“The slugfest,” said The Washington Post, “could go on for weeks, if not months.” Perhaps the only clear message from Super Tuesday is that all those states “that rushed, lemming-like, to schedule their voting on Feb. 5, the earliest permissible day, weren’t as smart as they thought.” Now the power shifts to states that vote later in February and in March, including Maryland, Virginia, Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania. There’s even a chance that Clinton and Obama could be battling for delegates all the way to the convention.

A long contest “may only increase the pressure on campaigns that are more than willing to bare their fangs,” said The New York Times. But a rancorous fight would be bad for the Democrats in November. Voters are splitting along lines of race, class, and gender, and the Clinton campaign’s “divisive” attempt to disparage Obama hasn’t helped. Obama supporters, meanwhile, have turned his campaign into “a cult of personality,” and many already say they could not bring themselves to vote for Clinton if she’s the nominee. “That is not the way democracy is supposed to work.”

What the columnists said

Obama transcends identity politics, said William Saletan in Slate.com, and Super Tuesday proved that. After the South Carolina primary, Bill Clinton compared Obama to Jesse Jackson, who had a lot of black support but never got more than 15 percent to 20 percent of the white vote in any state. This week, Obama “shattered his previous white-vote ceiling,” winning more than 40 percent of white voters in eight states. In California, Utah, and Illinois, he had more white support than Clinton. Whatever happens next, no one can say Obama was merely the black candidate. “The American color barrier, at its highest level, is collapsing.”

The road ahead looks good for Obama, said Reid Wilson in Realclearpolitics.com. The more leisurely pace from now on gives him time to campaign in person and at big events, at which he whips up enormous enthusiasm. He outraised Clinton by $20 million in January, and now has far more money for advertising in the key states ahead. Super Tuesday was a draw, but Clinton needed it to be a knockout. “The longer Obama dances and avoids the roundhouse, the more likely he will end up winning.”

Actually, Clinton now has the clear advantage, said Ari Berman in Thenation.com. After Obama’s victories in Iowa and South Carolina, the media had practically anointed him the new messiah. Super Tuesday showed “there’s a big difference between Internet buzz, youth crusades, big-name endorsements, and the people who actually vote in a Democratic primary.” Rank-and-file Democrats still prefer Clinton’s experience and strength, “and her support among the fastest-growing demographic in the party, Hispanic voters, could prove decisive.”

What next?

Next week’s “Potomac Primary,” when Maryland, Virginia, and Washington, D.C., go to the polls, could give Obama a boost if black voters continue to turn out for him. Wisconsin votes on Feb. 19, and after that, all eyes will turn to Ohio and Texas, which vote on March 4. If there’s still no winner after that, said Ben Smith in Politico.com, Pennsylvania, which votes on April 22, becomes “another Iowa,” with candidates spending six weeks there campaigning in gyms and diners for every last vote.