Musharraf’s panicky power grab

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf threw his nation into turmoil this week when he abruptly declared a state of emergency, suspended the constitution, and arrested thousands of political opponents, human-rights activists, judges, and lawyers. The military ruler’s tentative embrace of democracy came to an end just as the country’s Supreme Court was poised to rule his presidency illegal because he had not yet given up command of the military. Musharraf fired the justices before they could strip him of power.

Hundreds of lawyers—the vanguard of Pakistan’s political opposition— took to the streets in protest. In Lahore, attorneys in threepiece suits threw rocks at police from the roof of a courthouse until they were beaten back with tear gas and batons. Most Pakistanis never saw the inflammatory images because Musharraf blocked independent TV broadcasts. It’s the blackest day in Pakistan’s history, declared opposition party head Benazir Bhutto. She demanded that Musharraf make good on his earlier promise to hold parliamentary elections in January.

The crackdown created jitters around the world. Pakistan has a nuclear arsenal containing more than 40 missiles, as well as a sizable population of Islamic militants and a virtually lawless tribal area where al Qaida has established a safe haven. President Bush personally called Musharraf to urge him to schedule elections and return to power-sharing negotiations with Bhutto, but did not threaten to withhold the $2 billion Washington sends Islamabad every year.

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Unpleasant as it is to help prop up a panicked autocracy, said the Chicago Tribune, America must keep funding Musharraf because the alternative is so much worse. Al Qaida has become increasingly brazen in the tribal areas, attacking and capturing Pakistani troops. It would just love to take advantage of the political turmoil to radicalize the population, topple the government, and get hold of those nukes. Bush’s best course is to quietly pressure Musharraf to roll back the emergency powers.

It’s time to cut all ties to this dictator, said the Los Angeles Times. Despite all the U.S. cash he’s received, Musharraf has failed to act decisively against the jihadists pouring into western Pakistan. He may stage sham elections in January once all his opponents are behind bars, but he’ll never give up power voluntarily. If Bush won’t stop funding him, Congress should step in, because supporting and bankrolling a repressive dictatorship will enrage Pakistanis and backfire on the U.S.

Musharraf is making a mockery of Bush’s policy of promoting democracy abroad, said Rich Lowry in National Review. With its weak institutions, strong ethnic and religious divisions, and clan-based politics, Pakistan has proven to be poor soil in which to plant our hopes for a more democratic Mideast. Sadly, the same has been true of Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories. By insisting on promoting democracy in such a sweeping, grandiloquent way, Bush only set himself up for failure.

That failure will be multiplied a thousand-fold if Musharraf continues this crackdown, said Vali Nasr in The Christian Science Monitor. Demoralized Pakistani soldiers are openly expressing unhappiness about being told to round up middle-class teachers, lawyers, and journalists. That puts Musharraf and his military on a collision course. If Pakistan collapses into chaos, the consequences for the U.S. will be far worse than what followed the Iranian revolution.

We shouldn’t fear supporting Musharraf’s democratic opponents, said Joshua Kurlantzick in The New Republic. For all their noise and violence, Pakistan’s radical Islamist groups have never won more than a small sliver of the vote and aren’t likely to anytime soon. And Pakistan’s heavily guarded nukes have survived worse unrest without being stolen, sold, or deployed. A return to democracy may mean more of Bhutto’s corruption, but at least the judiciary and media would operate freely, opening the door to a new generation of leaders.

Bhutto may hold the key to the outcome of Musharraf’s big gamble. If she chooses to aggressively challenge Musharraf and to support continued protests, she might force him from power. In Washington, Congress is likely to take a closer look at the $10 billion in aid the U.S. has sent Musharraf since 2001. The Los Angeles Times reported this week that most of those billions went to buy heavy arms better suited to fighting India, while Pakistani soldiers in the border regions are pursuing al Qaida and Taliban fighters with nothing more than sandals and bolt-action rifles.