Will Republicans suffer politically if the Supreme Court strikes down ObamaCare? Don't count on it.

Political science shows that voters are not very good at assigning blame for policy disasters

Supreme Court
(Image credit: REUTERS/Gary Cameron)

Next month, the Supreme Court might rule in King v. Burwell that the Affordable Care Act does not make subsidies available on insurance exchanges established by the federal government. In a rational world, this argument would be laughed out of court, as even former Republican politicians and congressional staffers have suggested. But that's not the world we live in.

So it's worth considering the political fallout if the Supreme Court's Republican nominees throw the U.S.'s health care market into chaos. The short answer is that, with some notable exceptions, Republicans could very well get away with it.

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Scott Lemieux

Scott Lemieux is a professor of political science at the College of Saint Rose in Albany, N.Y., with a focus on the Supreme Court and constitutional law. He is a frequent contributor to the American Prospect and blogs for Lawyers, Guns and Money.