A few more reasons why Republicans hate the CBO analysis of their health-care plan
Debunking ObamaCare alarmism, predicting thousands more Medicaid babies, and more
The headline numbers from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office's analysis of the Republican health-care bill are the 24 million more people expected to not have insurance in 2026 (compared to projections if ObamaCare remains in place), and the $337 billion reduction in the federal deficit, thanks largely to steep federal cuts in Medicaid and the elimination of ObamaCare's subsidies for Americans buying health care through federal exchanges.
But there are a surprising number of other interesting facts and figures in the 37-page CBO/Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) analysis of the GOP's American Health Care Act.
For example, the economists at the CBO — headed by a conservative economist, Keith Hall, hand-picked by Republicans in Congress — disagree with President Trump and congressional Republicans that ObamaCare is a "disaster" imploding in an unsustainable "death spiral":
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Also, the CBO estimates that thanks to the GOP bill's defunding of Planned Parenthood, the AHCA would greatly reduce "services that help women avert pregnancy," especially low-income women, leading to a significant rise in the number of births. In one year alone, "the number of births in the Medicaid program would increase by several thousand," and "some of those children would themselves qualify for Medicaid and possibly for other federal programs," the CBO said, costing the federal government $77 million in direct Medicaid spending alone through 2026.
If you get insurance through your job, like about half of Americans do, the CBO analysis might affect you, too. By 2020, the CBO predicts, 2 million fewer people would have insurance through their work, and that number would grow to 7 million by 2026. This is based partly on the assumption that "fewer employees would take up the offer of such coverage in the absence of the individual mandate penalties," but also because absent the mandate that larger companies offer health plans, "fewer employers would offer health insurance to their workers."
Why wouldn't more employers shunt their workers onto the private insurance market? "Businesses are legally obligated to cover their rank-and-file employees if they want to insure their executives," says Olga Khazan at The Atlantic, "and not offering health insurance would make it harder to recruit people at the managerial level and above, according to Rob Shapiro, a former U.S. undersecretary of commerce." Businesses with younger workers would be expected to choose to drop group coverage, and insurance rates for young, healthy workers are projected to drop starting in 2020 (while costs for older customers not yet eligible for Medicare will rise sharply), though the cheaper insurance will be more bare-bones than either current offerings of the employer-sponsored plans.
Health care makes up roughly a fifth of the U.S. economy, so you might expect the AHCA to have some macroeconomic effects, too. The CBO certainly does — just don't ask what they are.
Because the bill is "major legislation" as defined under House rules, that "triggers the requirement that the cost estimate, to the greatest extent practicable, include the budgetary impact of its macroeconomic effects," the CBO said. "However, because of the very short time available to prepare this cost estimate, quantifying and incorporating those macroeconomic effects have not been practicable."
Given the rest of the CBO analysis, that probably qualifies as good news for the GOP.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
Quincy Jones, music icon, is dead at 91
Speed Read The legendary producer is perhaps best known as the architect behind Michael Jackson's 'Thriller'
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Moldova's pro-West president wins 2nd term
Speed Read Maia Sandu beat Alexandr Stoianoglo, despite suspicions of Russia meddling in the election
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
2024 race ends with swing state barnstorming
Speed Read Kamala Harris and Donald Trump held rallies in battlegrounds over the weekend
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
US election: who the billionaires are backing
The Explainer More have endorsed Kamala Harris than Donald Trump, but among the 'ultra-rich' the split is more even
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
US election: where things stand with one week to go
The Explainer Harris' lead in the polls has been narrowing in Trump's favour, but her campaign remains 'cautiously optimistic'
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Is Trump okay?
Today's Big Question Former president's mental fitness and alleged cognitive decline firmly back in the spotlight after 'bizarre' town hall event
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The life and times of Kamala Harris
The Explainer The vice-president is narrowly leading the race to become the next US president. How did she get to where she is now?
By The Week UK Published
-
Will 'weirdly civil' VP debate move dial in US election?
Today's Big Question 'Diametrically opposed' candidates showed 'a lot of commonality' on some issues, but offered competing visions for America's future and democracy
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
1 of 6 'Trump Train' drivers liable in Biden bus blockade
Speed Read Only one of the accused was found liable in the case concerning the deliberate slowing of a 2020 Biden campaign bus
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Biden, Trump urge calm after assassination attempt
Speed Reads A 20-year-old gunman grazed Trump's ear and fatally shot a rally attendee on Saturday
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published