Will Trump be goaded into starting a war with Iran?

Iran probably won't make the first move. But Trump might.

Tensions have escalated between President Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. It began with a fiery speech from Rouhani, which prompted Trump to issue a bellicose tweet warning Iran to "NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE."

To many, this provocation seemed foolish. Indeed, escalation between Trump and Iran comes with risk of military conflict. But Iran is a strategic actor, unlikely to be goaded into making a move that leads to conflict. Instead, Trump, egged on by a hawkish constituency, could back himself into a corner from which there is no escape that does not involve the U.S. taking military action against Iran. This would be a crisis of Trump's own making, and it would be disastrous.

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Rachel Whitlark

Rachel Whitlark is an Assistant Professor of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology. Her work focuses on international security and foreign-policy decision-making, specifically including nuclear proliferation, counter-proliferation, and military intervention. Her book explores the American and Israeli use of preventive military force as a counter-proliferation strategy against adversarial nuclear programs. Her work has appeared in International Studies Quarterly, Security Studies, The Washington Quarterly, The Monkey Cage, War on the Rocks, and the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, among other publications.