Why Trump's new Mexico tariffs won't work
They will probably do far more harm than good
President Trump has unveiled another anti-immigration policy that seems likely to be just as ineffective as all his previous anti-immigration policies. Trump announced on Twitter Thursday night that he will impose new 5 percent tariffs on all goods imported from Mexico — and then keep raising those tariffs until that country somehow squelches the flow of undocumented immigrants to the United States.
It's another dramatic act by a president who loves drama — and it will produce plenty of criticism from people who already hate the president's trade and immigration policies. But perhaps the most important point is that this move probably won't work. Here are three reasons new tariffs are unlikely to stop — or even slow — northward migration, or accomplish much except to raise the level of misery in both Mexico and the United States.
1. Tariffs will increase the pain abroad. Trump's new policy seems likely to exacerbate the problems that are producing migration in the first place. There are many reasons people around the world flee their countries and head to the United States, but economics is a big one: It's easier to make money here than in their home countries.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Under those circumstances, Trump's tariffs make zero sense. The president's idea is that the policy will work by creating pain in the Mexican economy, forcing that country's officials to act more aggressively to end migration into the U.S. That pain will take the form of reduced profits and — it seems likely — smaller workforces at Mexican companies.
What will Mexican workers do when they lose their jobs? Probably the same thing as their compatriots from across Latin America: head north. Trump's new plan might actually increase the number of migrants seeking work in the United States.
2. Tariffs will increase the pain at home. Economists never tire of pointing out — and the president just as steadfastly seems determined to misunderstand — that tariffs on imports to the United States aren't really paid by those companies or their home countries. Those higher costs are passed on to the American consumers who buy those products. The pain may be unavoidable: Mexico is, after all, one of America's largest trading partners.
This means Americans are about to pay more for their groceries in order to help the president achieve his goal of keeping immigrants out of the country.
It's also likely that Mexico could retaliate with tariffs of its own. The ensuing escalation could produce even more economic pain in the United States. American farmers have already been badly hurt by the first year of the president's trade wars; the president has tried to soften the blow with subsidies to make up for lost business.
So even if the tariffs somehow do manage to reduce immigration, it probably won't be worth the cost to the economy. One good sign: The president's Republican allies in Congress are signalling that they're losing their patience with this approach.
3. Complex problems don't have simple solutions. It's clear that Trump is looking for a silver bullet to end the challenges of migration, but the issue is far too complex to be solved so easily or one-dimensionally. Violence, poverty, and persecution are all factors — and climate change will increasingly be a cause, as well.
To create an effective policy that would reduce migration to the United States, Trump would have to fundamentally change his entire approach to leadership. He would have to care about the hard work of addressing root causes instead of looking for easy one-off solutions that produce more headlines than results. He would have to consider policies that include both carrots and sticks. He would have to be creative.
Trump's apparent approach, instead, is simply to inflict pain and hope it somehow makes the problem go away.
Where immigration is concerned, that approach has been a failure on the president's own terms. The Muslim travel ban was implemented in haphazard fashion. Family separation remains a moral disaster. The border wall is an offense against the Constitution. Still, immigrants keep coming.
There is no reason to believe the president's new policy will be more effective than his previous efforts. But it will cause pain. Trump may not be very good at solving problems, but he's excellent at increasing the amount of unhappiness in the world. That is all his new tariff threat is likely to accomplish.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Joel Mathis is a freelance writer who has spent nine years as a syndicated columnist, co-writing the RedBlueAmerica column as the liberal half of a point-counterpoint duo. His work also regularly appears in National Geographic, The Kansas City Star and Heatmap News. His awards include best online commentary at the Online News Association and (twice) at the City and Regional Magazine Association.
-
Fall into the groove at these delightful record stores
The Week Recommends Each one strikes its own chord
By Catherine Garcia, The Week US Published
-
How likely are you to get audited by the IRS?
The Explainer The odds are greater for some than others
By Anya Jaremko-Greenwold, The Week US Published
-
Crossword: April 22, 2024
The Week's daily crossword
By The Week Staff Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published