While Democratic nominee Joe Biden is poised for 2020 victory, President Trump can still turn it around.
Alaska, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania have yet to report enough votes to discern a winner. Arizona remains contested as well, though Fox News and The Associated Press have projected it to go to Biden. Just a win in Pennsylvania or any combination of two of the other states, save Alaska, would be enough to push Biden over the edge.
Pennsylvania is mandatory
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When to expect it: Officials say they believe they'll have most votes counted by Friday
Trump needs to win Pennsylvania if he wants to be re-elected. As of Thursday morning, he's leading the count with 50.4 percent of the vote to Biden's 48.3 percent with 91 percent of votes reported. But the counties with the most votes yet to be counted — those surrounding Pittsburgh and Philadelphia — lean Democratic, as do the absentee votes that are taking longer to count than in-person votes. If the pattern of returns we've seen so far holds, Biden will end up with 50.3 percent of the vote to Trump's 48.5, The New York Times estimates.
Alaska and North Carolina
When to expect it: North Carolina won't finalize results until Nov. 12
With Pennsylvania giving Trump 20 electoral votes, he'll arrive at 234, and likely bring in another three from Alaska, bringing him to 237. Trump's next most likely win would come from North Carolina, where he has 50.1 percent of the vote to Biden's 48.7 percent with 95 percent of votes reported. North Carolina's 15 electoral votes would put Trump at 252, and the Times puts him at an 86 percent chance of winning the state. Problematic for Trump is that most of the counties with the most votes left to report — Orange, Forsyth, Cumberland, and Buncombe — lean heavily in Biden's favor.
Turning the tide in Georgia
When to expect it: Absentee ballot counting will continue through Thursday, and perhaps late into the evening, officials say
Trump also has a chance of retaining the traditionally red state of Georgia and its 16 electoral votes; His total would then be 268. Trump will need to win an estimated one-third of the votes still outstanding to hold his tiny 15,000-vote, .3 percent lead there, the Times says. That means Atlanta's suburbs would need to massively shift in the president's favor, as they hold most of the state's uncounted votes but have overwhelmingly voted for Biden so far.
Nevada or Arizona Finish it Off
When to expect it: More Nevada results came in starting at noon Thursday, and will continue to be counted slowly over the next week
Arizona or Nevada would then be enough to put Trump over the edge, but both states look tough for the president. He may have a slightly better shot in Nevada, as Arizona already leans Biden enough that Fox News and the Associated Press called it for him, but Trump will need to perform better than he has so far as votes continue to be counted in Las Vegas' Clark County, where Biden has an eight-point margin with 82 percent of votes counted so far. Analysts say early updates on Thursday make it more likely the state goes to Biden.
If Trump loses Nevada, he'll need to bring in about 60 percent of Arizona's outstanding vote to win the presidency.
