How Biden can win the election
The Democratic nominee still has several possible paths to victory
As of Thursday morning, former Vice President Joe Biden looks to have won at least 253 Electoral College votes. These are his remaining paths to victory, as the map currently stands.
Biden wins Pennsylvania
When to expect it: Officials say they believe they'll have most votes counted by Friday
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
With 20 Electoral College votes, Pennsylvania is all Biden would need to put him over 270. As of Thursday morning, Trump was ahead in the count by about 135,000 votes. "But the more than 460,000 outstanding mail ballots left to be counted are likely to lean heavily Democratic," FiveThirtyEight writes. "And at least 116,000 of them come from Philadelphia, a very Democratic-leaning city where mail ballots so far have gone to Biden by more than a 9 to 1 ratio." Republicans maintain Trump still has a chance in the state, since not all of the ballots are "coming from Democratic strongholds," observed GOP consultant Charlie Gerow to Politico. If Biden is able to hold his margin in the yet-to-be-counted mail-in ballots, though, it would mean he'd almost certainly win the state, and the election.
Biden wins any two of: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, or North Carolina
When to expect it: Officials in Arizona's pivotal Maricopa County said their next release of votes would be at 9 p.m. ET on Thursday; Nevada officials began releasing additional results Thursday afternoon; Georgia officials said they will be processing absentee ballots all day Thursday; North Carolina accepts ballots postmarked by Election Day through Nov. 12
Fox News and The Associated Press controversially already called Arizona for Biden, although most major networks and publications have held off on following suit. The hesitation is due to uncertainty over outstanding ballots in the state's most populous county, Maricopa, where Trump began to chip away at Biden's margin overnight. As of Thursday morning, Biden leads Trump by 68,000 votes or less in Arizona. If his lead holds, he'd need just one more state to put him over 270.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
The most promising option looks to be Nevada, which Hillary Clinton won in 2016, and where Biden maintains "a steady, though narrow" lead on Trump, The New York Times reports. The Nevada + Arizona combo gives Biden exactly 270 votes, making him the safe victor even if he loses Pennsylvania.
If Arizona doesn't come through, then Georgia is another possibility for a combo. The state had 61,367 outstanding mail-in absentee ballots uncounted as of Thursday morning, with Trump's lead continuing to shrink as votes trickle in from Democratic strongholds around Atlanta. North Carolina, while a must-win for Trump, is less a factor in the arithmetic for Biden, since it'd take him losing Pennsylvania and all but one of the other states in this category, for it to become necessary.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Jeva Lange was the executive editor at TheWeek.com. She formerly served as The Week's deputy editor and culture critic. She is also a contributor to Screen Slate, and her writing has appeared in The New York Daily News, The Awl, Vice, and Gothamist, among other publications. Jeva lives in New York City. Follow her on Twitter.
-
Why au pairs might become a thing of the past
Under The Radar Brexit and wage ruling are threatening the 'mutually beneficial arrangement'
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
'A direct, protracted war with Israel is not something Iran is equipped to fight'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
Today's political cartoons - April 17, 2024
Cartoons Wednesday's cartoons - political anxiety, jury sorting hat, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published