How Biden can win the election

As of Thursday morning, former Vice President Joe Biden looks to have won at least 253 Electoral College votes. These are his remaining paths to victory, as the map currently stands.

Biden wins Pennsylvania

When to expect it: Officials say they believe they'll have most votes counted by Friday

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With 20 Electoral College votes, Pennsylvania is all Biden would need to put him over 270. As of Thursday morning, Trump was ahead in the count by about 135,000 votes. "But the more than 460,000 outstanding mail ballots left to be counted are likely to lean heavily Democratic," FiveThirtyEight writes. "And at least 116,000 of them come from Philadelphia, a very Democratic-leaning city where mail ballots so far have gone to Biden by more than a 9 to 1 ratio." Republicans maintain Trump still has a chance in the state, since not all of the ballots are "coming from Democratic strongholds," observed GOP consultant Charlie Gerow to Politico. If Biden is able to hold his margin in the yet-to-be-counted mail-in ballots, though, it would mean he'd almost certainly win the state, and the election.

Biden wins any two of: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, or North Carolina

When to expect it: Officials in Arizona's pivotal Maricopa County said their next release of votes would be at 9 p.m. ET on Thursday; Nevada officials began releasing additional results Thursday afternoon; Georgia officials said they will be processing absentee ballots all day Thursday; North Carolina accepts ballots postmarked by Election Day through Nov. 12

Fox News and The Associated Press controversially already called Arizona for Biden, although most major networks and publications have held off on following suit. The hesitation is due to uncertainty over outstanding ballots in the state's most populous county, Maricopa, where Trump began to chip away at Biden's margin overnight. As of Thursday morning, Biden leads Trump by 68,000 votes or less in Arizona. If his lead holds, he'd need just one more state to put him over 270.

The most promising option looks to be Nevada, which Hillary Clinton won in 2016, and where Biden maintains "a steady, though narrow" lead on Trump, The New York Times reports. The Nevada + Arizona combo gives Biden exactly 270 votes, making him the safe victor even if he loses Pennsylvania.

If Arizona doesn't come through, then Georgia is another possibility for a combo. The state had 61,367 outstanding mail-in absentee ballots uncounted as of Thursday morning, with Trump's lead continuing to shrink as votes trickle in from Democratic strongholds around Atlanta. North Carolina, while a must-win for Trump, is less a factor in the arithmetic for Biden, since it'd take him losing Pennsylvania and all but one of the other states in this category, for it to become necessary.