Redistricting: How the GOP could win in 2026
Trump pushes early redistricting in Texas to help Republicans keep control of the House in next year's elections
President Trump has a plan to rig the 2026 midterms, said Mary Ellen Klas in Bloomberg. At his urging, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott last week called a 30-day special legislative session to redraw the state's congressional districts, a process that typically happens only after the census, which is next scheduled for 2030. The goal, as Trump has openly stated, is to net five more U.S. House seats for Republicans, with possibly another three seats to come from a similar redrawing in Ohio. That might be enough to protect the GOP's narrow House majority in next year's elections, blunting Democrats' plans to win the chamber and halt "Trump's march toward authoritarian rule." Democratic governors are "promising to fight back" with gerrymanders of their own, said Cameron Joseph in The Christian Science Monitor. California's Gavin Newsom, Illinois' JB Pritzker, and New York's Kathy Hochul are all threatening to retaliate by making their maps more partisan. We're in for a "multistate brawl of naked political opportunism that could go a long way to determining who controls the House, no matter how the voters themselves feel."
Democrats may be ready "to play dirty," said Christian Paz in Vox, but their redistricting plans "will face steep hurdles." Independent and bipartisan commissions have the final say on maps in five Democratic states, including California and New York, and returning that power to legislatures would require statewide referendums or court challenges. There are already "signs that Democrats may not be up for the fight," said Lauren Egan in The Bulwark. Pritzker recently wavered on his redistricting threat, declaring that "cheating the way the president wants to is improper." His ambivalence is understandable, because Democrats already control 14 of Illinois' 17 U.S. House seats; creative map drawing may nab them only one more. All this "redistricting talk from Democrats may be more boast than bite."
The party's best hope may be to sit back and hope the Texas redrawing "backfires and causes Republicans to lose otherwise impregnable seats," said David Dayen in The American Prospect. That's a real possibility, because if existing Democratic districts are dismantled and their voters spread across safe GOP areas, reliable seats could suddenly turn competitive for Republicans. If 2026 shapes up to be a Democratic wave year—which it could, with Trump's approval rating currently sitting below 40% in some polls—Republicans may come to regret their attempt to rig the vote.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Political cartoons for October 25Cartoons Saturday’s political cartoons include hospital bill trauma, Independence Day, and more
-
Roasted squash and apple soup recipeThe Week Recommends Autumnal soup is full of warming and hearty flavours
-
Ukraine: Donald Trump pivots againIn the Spotlight US president apparently warned Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept Vladimir Putin’s terms or face destruction during fractious face-to-face
-
Bailouts: Why Trump is rescuing ArgentinaFeature The White House approved a $20 billion currency swap with Argentina
-
James indictment: Trump’s retributionFeature Trump pursues charges against Letitia James in revenge for her civil fraud lawsuit
-
Conversion therapy: Free speech or quackery?Feature A Christian therapist challenges Colorado’s ban on conversion therapy, claiming it violates the First Amendment
-
Judge halts firings during government shutdownFeature A federal judge blocked President Trump’s plan to cut jobs tied to “Democrat programs,” ruling that his administration violated layoff laws during the shutdown
-
Trump nominee in limbo after racist texts leakSpeed Read Paul Ingrassia lost Republican support following the exposure of past racist text messages
-
The new age of book banningThe Explainer How America’s culture wars collided with parents and legislators who want to keep their kids away from ‘dangerous’ ideas
-
‘Vile, racist’ leaked chats roil Young RepublicansSpeed Read Leaders of Young Republican groups made racist, antisemitic and violent comments in private chats
-
Bad Bunny: Why MAGA is incensedFeature The NFL announced Latino artist Bad Bunny as the Super Bowl halftime headliner, sparking MAGA outrage