Redistricting: How the GOP could win in 2026

Donald Trump and Texas Governor Greg Abbott

Democrats may be ready "to play dirty," but their redistricting plans "will face steep hurdles."

(Image credit: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images)

President Trump has a plan to rig the 2026 midterms, said Mary Ellen Klas in Bloomberg. At his urging, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott last week called a 30-day special legislative session to redraw the state's congressional districts, a process that typically happens only after the census, which is next scheduled for 2030. The goal, as Trump has openly stated, is to net five more U.S. House seats for Republicans, with possibly another three seats to come from a similar redrawing in Ohio. That might be enough to protect the GOP's narrow House majority in next year's elections, blunting Democrats' plans to win the chamber and halt "Trump's march toward authoritarian rule." Democratic governors are "promising to fight back" with gerrymanders of their own, said Cameron Joseph in The Christian Science Monitor. California's Gavin Newsom, Illinois' JB Pritzker, and New York's Kathy Hochul are all threatening to retaliate by making their maps more partisan. We're in for a "multistate brawl of naked political opportunism that could go a long way to determining who controls the House, no matter how the voters themselves feel."

Democrats may be ready "to play dirty," said Christian Paz in Vox, but their redistricting plans "will face steep hurdles." Independent and bipartisan commissions have the final say on maps in five Democratic states, including California and New York, and returning that power to legislatures would require statewide referendums or court challenges. There are already "signs that Democrats may not be up for the fight," said Lauren Egan in The Bulwark. Pritzker recently wavered on his redistricting threat, declaring that "cheating the way the president wants to is improper." His ambivalence is understandable, because Democrats already control 14 of Illinois' 17 U.S. House seats; creative map drawing may nab them only one more. All this "redistricting talk from Democrats may be more boast than bite."

The party's best hope may be to sit back and hope the Texas redrawing "backfires and causes Republicans to lose otherwise impregnable seats," said David Dayen in The American Prospect. That's a real possibility, because if existing Democratic districts are dismantled and their voters spread across safe GOP areas, reliable seats could suddenly turn competitive for Republicans. If 2026 shapes up to be a Democratic wave year—which it could, with Trump's approval rating currently sitting below 40% in some polls—Republicans may come to regret their attempt to rig the vote.