EU referendum: Cameron denies euro-ultimatum

EU referendum: has Cameron set his sights too low?

26 May

Kicking off a "charm offensive" that will see him travelling to Denmark, Holland, France, Poland and Germany to meet fellow European leaders before the end of the week, David Cameron told the European Commission president yesterday that "British people are not happy with the status quo" in Europe.

Jean-Claude Juncker, visiting Chequers at Cameron's invitation, responded by reiterating that "he wanted to find a fair deal for the UK and would seek to help," a Downing Street spokesman told the BBC afterwards.

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The two men, who have a difficult relationship ever since Cameron publicly sought to block Juncker's election, sat down to dinner – pork belly, bacon and seasonal vegetables, according to the Daily Express – after Number Ten had announced that UK-based citizens from other EU countries would not be entitled to vote in the in/out referendum.

Isabel Hardman of The Spectator says this was a smart move on Cameron's part because it shows "he does not want the debate about the referendum to be one of an Establishment stitch-up. Allowing EU citizens to vote would be one way of encouraging such a narrative from certain parts of the 'Out' camp."

But is Cameron aiming high enough in his bid to renegotiate Britain's terms of membership before the referendum?Tory MEP Daniel Hannan believes the PM is being far too modest in his demands for change. "After the unexpected Conservative victory this month, EU leaders were braced for a fundamental renegotiation of Britain's relationship with Brussels," Hannan argues in an article for the Daily Mail.

"What with the crisis in Ukraine and the now very real prospect of a Greek default, the last thing the Brussels elite want is for Britain to walk away.

"The United Kingdom is the second largest economy in the EU and the second largest contributor to its budget. In other words, we have clout."

As result, says Hannan, Angela Merkel and other EU leaders were prepared to find "some unique status" for Britain.

Even that arch-federalist Jacques Delors, who once held the role now occupied by Juncker, has emerged from retirement to propose what he called a "privileged partnership" for Britain, says Hannan.

Delors envisages Britain enjoying free trade in goods, services and capital, but withdrawing from the non-commercial aspects of the EU such as defence, criminal justice, energy policy, fisheries, immigration and employment law.

Such a deal is "what most Britons want and, indeed, what they believed they were voting for in the 1975 referendum on our membership of the Common Market — a trading rather than a political union.

"Yet, extraordinarily, David Cameron has so far not asked for it."

David Cameron: EU talks begin now, but reform will not be easy

22 May

David Cameron will start talks aimed at redefining Britain's relationship with the EU, as he meets European leaders for the first time since winning the election.

The Prime Minister is at a regional summit in the Latvian capital Riga, where he is expected to outline the changes he is seeking, including plans to reduce the number of European migrants entering the UK.

"These talks will not be easy," he warned. "They will not be quick. There will be different views and disagreements along the way.

"But by working together in the right spirit and sticking at it, I believe we can find solutions that will address the concerns of the British people and improve the EU as a whole," he said.

The changes Cameron is seeking include banning new arrivals from claiming benefits for a period of four years in order to reduce immigration. He has made it clear that these welfare changes were an "absolute requirement in the renegotiation". Other demands include trying to get Britain more powers to either block new EU laws as well as an exclusion from the EU's commitment to ever closer union.

A referendum on Britain's membership of the EU is due to be held by 2017, and while Cameron has said he wants the UK to remain a part of a reformed union, "he has so far refused to say whether he would start calling for Britain to leave if he does not get what he wants", says the BBC.

European leaders, including German chancellor Angela Merkel, have vowed to oppose any proposed changes to the fundamental principles of the EU. European Commission head Jean-Claude Junker has said that he is prepared to help achieve a "fair deal" for the UK, but that key principles such as freedom of movement are non-negotiable.

"[The] key question is whether Cameron can achieve his aims without reforming the EU treaty, which could open a Pandora's box of demands from other countries," says Reuters.

EU referendum: don't be cocky about Europeans missing us

21 May

The Tories are being warned to learn from the mistakes of the Greek government and make sure they doesn't go into the EU reform negotiations believing fellow Europeans will do anything to keep Britain in the club.

Chris Giles of the Financial Times says that, just like Britain's Conservatives, Syriza was elected with a substantial mandate to renegotiate the relationship with European institutions – and that hardliners insisted that no compromises were acceptable.

Syriza believed it held a strong negotiating hand because it assumed the rest of the eurozone "could not imagine life without Athens". And it reinforced its hand by suggesting a domestic referendum to decide the merits of any negotiated deal.

"Tragically," writes Giles, "David Cameron's Conservatives appear to be following the same script."

Labour, too, needs to face some facts about the in/out EU vote before the referendum bill is published next week and it has to respond in the Commons, says Isabel Hardman in The Spectator.

Current party policy is that there should be no referendum, yet the main Labour leadership candidates have now all said that they want a public vote.

What would be politically effective, argues Hardman, would be for Labour to say "we're in favour of a referendum, and we are now the party of In"."This would mean the debate would not be about the principle of the referendum, but the principle of the answer to that referendum question, on which the Conservative party is split."Giles argues that Conservative ambivalence about Europe is likely to be reflected by the attitude of other EU members towards British membership."No one wants Britain to leave," he says, "but the alternative of British membership of the club without playing by the rules is worse."

With Cameron under pressure to bring forward the referendum to 2016, it is vital Britain does not keep banging on about the dire consequences for our fellow Europeans if we are not granted the reforms that will allow Cameron to recommend continued membership.

It would be crazy, says Giles, for Britain to suggest it can overturn any of the EU's four basic freedoms of movement of goods, services, capital and people. "Mr Cameron must publicly limit his ambitions to the achievable — say, seeking to rewrite technical rules in specific areas such as foreigners' rights to claim benefits."

There's another thing we can learn from the Greeks – "the need to embrace fudge".

In Greece's case, the Syriza government "sought a victory over rapacious creditors but instead is moving towards a compromise that was on the table before the government was elected in January."

Cameron must accept that he is not going to achieve reforms that will entirely satisfy the eurosceptics on his own backbenches. But he might achieve just enough to be able to recommend that we vote to stay in.

EU referendum: businesses urged to support reformed membership

20 May

UK businesses are being urged to "turn up the volume" about the benefits of remaining a member of a reformed European Union, amid growing fears that a British exit, or 'Brexit', would lead to isolation.

Sir Mike Rake, president of the British Confederation of Industry, argued that firms "must be crystal clear" that membership is in the national interest and that no credible alternatives exist, the BBC reports.

"Europe and the City need each other," but the relationship is also "ripe for reform", he told guests at the lobby group's annual dinner. "The things we want are shared by our European colleagues and the EU can be more competitive without the need for treaty change," he said.

The CBI remained neutral when Tony Blair's government debated the benefits of joining the euro, but the organisation has now chosen to take "a more aggressive approach" with a possible Brexit looming, "arguing that a vote to leave would put jobs at risk and cost Britain influence", says The Guardian.

David Cameron has vowed to hold a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU before 2017, but many are speculating that the vote could come even sooner. Such a move would be welcomed by businesses keen to avoid a drawn-out period of uncertainty.

But the UK commercial world remains divided over the vote. Wading into the debate, the chairman of the construction equipment firm JCB said British businesses have nothing to fear from an exit from the union.

"We are the fifth or sixth largest economy in the world," Lord Bamford, one of the Tory party's largest donors, told the BBC. "We could exist on our own - peacefully and sensibly."

However, CBI president Sir Mike dismissed his comments, saying: "The question is not whether the UK would survive outside the EU, but whether it would thrive."

EU referendum: pressure mounts on Cameron for quick vote

19 May

David Cameron could be ready to fast-track negotiations on reforming Europe so that the EU referendum can be held next year rather than waiting until 2017.

That's how the Daily Mail is interpreting the news from Downing Street that the EU referendum bill, paving the way for the in/out referendum, will be the first bill to be published after the Queen's Speech is out of the way next Wednesday.

"The decision means that ministers will be able to force through the law by summer next year even if it is blocked in the House of Lords this year – fuelling speculation the poll could be held in 2016," the Mail reports.

An early referendum will please Bank of England governor Mark Carney and others arguing that a long period of uncertainty about Britain's relationship with its European trading partners will only harm the economy.

It will also please those, including Ukip leader Nigel Farage, who have high hopes that the British people will vote to quit Europe – and the sooner the better.

However, eurosceptics will be less impressed by a report from the think tank Open Europe giving what The Guardian calls an "upbeat assessment" of Cameron's chances of renegotiating key terms of membership without treaty changes being necessary.

For instance, Open Europe believes that restrictions on in-work benefits for EU migrants during their first four years in the UK – one of Cameron's most controversial demands – has a three-in-five chance of being achievable.

A 'red card' system, allowing national parliaments to club together to block new European legislation, has a three-in-four "achievability rating".

However, Open Europe believes Cameron's chances would not be improved by rushing the negotiations, mainly because fellow Europeans are currently more concerned with the Greek crisis and rescuing the Eurozone.

Some commentators have raised the issue of the French presidential election in May 2017. President Hollande will have other things on his mind in early 2017, making any negotiations trickier if they are not out of the way in 2016.

However, others believe Cameron wants to delay until the last minute – autumn 2017 – in the hope that Nicolas Sarkozy, who is open to EU reform, is returned to power in May. But as Andrew Neil commented on the Sunday Politics show, that's an awfully tight window between May and September.

The Times is in no doubt what Cameron should do: he must heed Mark Carney's advice and "seize the moment", whatever Open Europe might advise.

"Achieving real reform in Europe is clearly more important than meeting an arbitrary deadline," says a Times editorial, "but the risk of waiting is that opponents of reform will use the time to ensure that nothing is agreed.

"The choice when the referendum comes will be between staying in the EU or leaving it. The choice now is between a renegotiation that is complex, unrealistic and interminable and one that is simple, achievable and relatively quick. It should be an easy choice to make."