EU referendum: Cameron denies euro-ultimatum

Reports in this morning's papers suggested that some of the country's most high-profile Conservatives – including Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Sajid Javid – would be forced to leave the government if they insisted on campaigning for Britain to leave the EU.

David Cameron appeared to have risked a split in his party by issuing an ultimatum yesterday: back me or resign. But a spokeswoman for No 10 said this morning that reporters had "over interpreted his remarks", the BBC reports. Apparently the PM's comments applied to the period of the negotiations, rather than the referendum campaign that will follow.

The confusion follows the news that Britain's referendum rules are being re-written to allow "the government machine" to back the Yes campaign if Cameron wins the reforms he wants. Eurosceptic MPs smell a fix.

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Ultimatum debate

Many Tories hope that Cameron will follow the example of Labour PM Harold Wilson, who in the 1975 EU referendum allowed his ministers to campaign on either side.

But at the G7 summit in Bavaria yesterday, the PM said: "If you want to be part of the government you have to take the view that we are engaged in an exercise of renegotiation to have a referendum and that will lead to a successful outcome."

Journalists – and MPs – took that to mean that ministers would not be able to campaign against EU membership from within government.

The Daily Telegraph predicted a possible "wave of resignations" and listed six "top Conservatives" who could quit: Gove, Johnson (who will join the Cabinet when his term as London mayor expires) and Javid, plus Philip Hammond, Michael Fallon and Iain Duncan Smith.

The Daily Mail believes Cameron has made a "tactical mistake" by issuing the ultimatum. An editorial says: "Allowing ministers a free vote would show absolute confidence in his ability to negotiate a better deal from Brussels – including significant curbs on migration – then successfully sell it to his party.

"By contrast, putting a gun to MPs' heads will surely sow division, trigger resignations and risk opening up the sort of bitter splits on Europe that – as history shows – are bad for the Tory Party and, most crucially, Britain."

Former shadow home secretary and one-time Tory leadership contender David Davis agreed. "If the only people who will not have the freedom to vote and speak on it are ministers in the government, that is extraordinary and will likely lead to some people resigning from the government," he told Radio 4's Today programme this morning.

With the PM now denying that he has issued an ultimatum, doubt remains about what constraints, if any, will bind ministers in the run-up to the vote. "Mr Cameron's spokeswoman told journalists she would not speculate on what his position would be during the referendum campaign itself," the BBC says.

New rules

Ministers have "quietly reversed" a rule that applied in the Scottish independence referendum (under the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act of 2000) banning the government, local authorities and other bodies from making announcements in the last 28 days before the vote that might give an unfair advantage to either side.

The Financial Times says the government has inserted a clause into its EU Referendum Bill, due to be debated in the Commons tomorrow, lifting this restriction.

"That is absolutely outrageous," a Ukip spokesman told the FT. "Now there is nothing to stop, let's say, the European Commission suddenly announcing that they are giving broadband to the entire country on the eve of the poll."

New money

Also included in the EU Referendum Bill – and, again, certain to attract the charge that Cameron is seeking to "fix" the result – is a 40 per cent increase in the amount the Yes and No camps will be allowed to spend on their campaigns.

With international corporations and trade unions both expected to be eager to finance the Yes campaign, critics say the funding increase will only benefit those arguing for Britain to stay in Europe.

The maximum the designated "lead" campaign organisation can spend during the referendum will go up from £5m to £7m. The total maximum spend by all "permitted participants" will rise from £25m to £35m.

The government will justify the increase by saying that it brings funding into line with inflation and that it's not intended to benefit either side, says The Times. But Ukip has already complained about the potential "imbalance of resources".

EU referendum: German support could be 'wishful thinking'

4 June

David Cameron should not rely on support from Germany in his bid to renegotiate Britain's relationship with the EU, a former German foreign minister has warned.

Joschka Fischer, a key figure in the development of European foreign policy, said Angela Merkel would not do anything to endanger the fundamental principles of the union and that securing a deal for Britain was not top of her agenda.

"[She] has a much bigger problem to address – how to find a compromise in the currency union with Greece," Fischer told the BBC. "That's her priority number one now."

Fischer argues that it would be an "illusion" to think the UK would get special treatment from Germany because it is a significant contributor to the EU's budget, and he told the Prime Minister: "Don't lose yourself in wishful thinking."

He also warned that Britain would not fare well outside of Europe. "What will the UK be without the EU? Go to Washington, ask them. The answer is very clear, very negative."

His comments follow a largely successful meeting between Cameron and Merkel as part of the PM's attempt to secure a "better deal" for Britain. His demands include giving Britain the opportunity to opt out on issues when it disagrees with Brussels, as well as a ban on European citizens claiming benefits for a period of four years.

The chancellor has hinted that Germany would be willing to make compromises to keep Britain in the EU and refused to rule out treaty change. "Her advisers cautiously admitted that Merkel would consider it a failure of her chancellorship if a Brexit happened on her watch," says The Guardian.

Though a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU is at least a year away, a recent poll by the Washington-based Pew Centre showed that the majority of Britons are in favour of continued membership. Support was strongest among 18-29 year olds, with 69 per cent wanting to remain a part of the union, while those aged over 50 more likely to vote No.

New pressure group

Conservatives for Britain, a new pressure group committed to "fundamental change" in Britain's terms of membership, was launched yesterday.

The group will "style itself" as a supporter of Cameron's renegotiation plans, the BBC reports, and does not wish to be seen as a "nascent Out campaign".

However, co-chairman David Campbell Bannerman, an East of England MEP, said of Cameron's bid to win reforms, "Anything that smacks of tokenism or minor change is not saleable to the British electorate."

About 50 Tory MPs have already signed up to Conservatives for Britain, and 50 more are expected. Steve Baker, MP for Wycombe, said at yesterday's launch it was "death or glory now" for those who wanted to leave the EU.

New date?

Rather than waiting until September 2017, there is growing speculation that the referendum could be held in May 2016, thus avoiding a clash with French and German elections the following year.

The Times reports that the Prime Minister has "cleared the way" to combine the referendum with other elections set for next May, including the Scottish parliament and the London mayoralty. In doing so, he has rejected calls from the Electoral Commission to ensure that the referendum is a stand-alone poll.

A referendum so soon would make EU treaty change even more unlikely. Yet Philip Hammond told the BBC's Andrew Marr yesterday that the changes Cameron is seeking – including restrictions on welfare entitlement for newcomers from eastern Europe – "can only be sustained against judicial attack" if they are backed by treaty change.

The solution? Any reforms won by Cameron that require treaty change could be included in a so-called "UK protocol", to be written into a new EU treaty when the time is right, possibly 2018.