The UK's national debt: a terrifying warning
OBR's 'grim' report on Britain's fiscal outlook warns of skyrocketing spending, but 'projection' is not a 'forecast'

When it comes to the public finances, Britain is swirling in a "maelstrom of denial, obfuscation and avoidance", said Paul Johnson in The Times.
In the coming years, we will need to spend untold billions more on health, pensions, defence and battling climate change, while losing tens of billions in fuel duties. Neither main party has any realistic plan for how this will be done. To our national shame, Labour, like the Tories before it, looks set to shirk the biggest fiscal challenge facing Britain today: fixing social care, which has been in a mess for decades.
And now, into this already turbulent picture, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has just chucked "an enormous brick", with its report on the fiscal risks facing Britain over the next 50 years.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Economic growth: the 'holy grail'
"No question, it is grim stuff," said Larry Elliott in The Guardian. It projects a near tripling of the national debt from just under 100% of GDP now (and 30% only 20 years ago) to 274% by the mid-2070s. Public spending is set to jump from 45% to 60% of GDP, as health costs double and pensions rise sharply, while government revenues get stuck at around 40%.
Crucially, the OBR's warning is a "projection" of what would happen on current trends, not a "forecast" of what actually will happen, said Martin Wolf in the Financial Times. The report itself notes that no government would let debt reach such an "unsustainable level". Still, the question is: how can we alter this terrifying trajectory?
The "holy grail" is economic growth, and its close cousin productivity. The OBR's sums are based on average productivity growth of 1.5% a year for 50 years. Even nudging that up to 1.6% would make a substantial difference. And if we managed to average 2.5% – the level before the global financial crisis of 2007/08 – the national debt would fall to 65% of GDP by the mid-2070s. Does Labour, though, have a realistic plan for achieving any of this?
Interest-fuelled 'doom-loop' of debt
"People sometimes ask me why we should worry about government debt rising from one massive number to even bigger numbers," said David Smith in The Sunday Times.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
The short answer is: the cost of servicing it. In this decade, the cost of paying interest on the UK's national debt will average around £100 billion – "dwarfing the spending of most government departments". This risks sucking the nation into an interest-fuelled "doom-loop" of debt.
The main factors pushing debt higher are familiar and daunting: an ageing population; a falling birthrate; the costs of reducing fossil fuel use. Yet reducing the debt, by raising taxes and cutting spending, risks "hobbling the economy". We need to hear "much more" from the Government about how this circle will be squared.
-
Quiz of The Week: 16 – 22 August
Quiz Have you been paying attention to The Week's news?
-
Can Soho House get its edge back?
Talking Point The private members' club has lost its exclusive appeal – but a £2 billion buy-out could offer a fresh start
-
The week's best photos
In Pictures A human pyramid, a church on wheels, and more
-
Is Trump America's CEO?
Talking Points The party of free enterprise turns to 'cronyism'
-
Switzerland could experience unique economic problems from Trump's tariffs
In the Spotlight The current US tariff rate on Switzerland is among the highest in the world
-
DORKs: The return of 'meme stock' mania
Feature Amateur investors are betting big on struggling brands in hopes of a revival
-
Jaguar's Adrian Mardell steps down: a Maga mauling
Speed Read Jaguar Land Rover had come under fire for 'woke' advertising campaign
-
How is Trump's economy doing?
Talking Points The latest jobs numbers suggest a slowdown in the offing
-
How is AI reshaping the economy?
Today's Big Question Big Tech is now 'propping up the US economy'
-
Why has the Russian ruble performed so well this year?
Today's Big Question Despite economic malaise, Russia's currency is up 45% on the year
-
Trump's threats to fire Jerome Powell are unsettling the markets
Talking Points Expect a 'period of volatility' if he follows through