How is Trump's economy doing?

President Donald Trump says the U.S. economy is going great under his stewardship. The latest jobs numbers suggest a slowdown is coming. Trump's response to that report was to fire the nation's chief labor statistician last week. How is the economy actually doing?

The American economy is "bending — but not yet breaking" under the weight of Trump's policies, said Eric Levitz at Vox. An "avalanche of data" suggests that hiring and economic growth are slowing, while consumer prices are rising. While there is "little sign of an imminent recession or inflationary crisis," the numbers suggest that Trump's tariff-driven trade wars are taking a "heavy toll on U.S. households and businesses." If the trends continue, "economic growth could stall out completely."

'Economic boom' was a mirage?

During the early months of the trade wars, the "full impact of Trump's tariffs was not quite clear," said NPR. That is largely because he delayed implementation of the tariffs after announcing them. "That's starting to change," and the full effects of the new policies are likely to be felt more intensely in the coming months. The Budget Lab at Yale University estimated that Trump's tariffs will cost the average American household $2,400 this year. The president may talk triumphantly, "but the reality so far is proving to be different."

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"In April, the country appeared to be on the verge of economic catastrophe," said Rogé Karma at The Atlantic. Stocks plunged briefly after Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs, but the "crisis never came" after the president walked back or delayed most of his promised policies. The numbers suggested that inflation was stable and job growth was strong. The White House even touted an "economic boom." The faltering jobs numbers released last week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggest the resilient economy was a mirage. The bad news? "The worst might be yet to come."

The "worrying U.S. jobs numbers" are a "setback rather than a rout," said Richard Partington at The Guardian. American companies "rushed to stockpile goods" before the trade wars started, "helping them to keep prices down for now." When those businesses run out of those "pre-tariff stockpiles," it seems certain that "prices will creep higher." The economy is "resilient" for now, but that may change. "There are signs that consequences are coming."

'Trump's economy now'

"The jobs report was OK," but Trump's response "is disastrous," said Matthew Yglesias at his Slow Boring Substack. For now, the economy is being powered by an AI investment boom, but "investment booms always come to an end." The damage done by Trump's decision to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics is "going to be very hard to fix."

America is not experiencing the "boom the Republican president promised," said The Associated Press. It is getting more difficult for Trump to blame his predecessor, Joe Biden, when the "world economy hangs on his every word and social media post." Maybe the disappointing numbers are merely "growing pains" as Trump's policies take hold, or maybe more disruption is ahead. Either way, it's "Trump's economy now."