Oscar predictions 2024: which nominees will win the big awards?

Christopher Nolan's war biopic Oppenheimer dominates the Academy Award nominations

Cillian Murphy starring in 'Oppenheimer'
The Cillian Murphy epic "Oppenheimer" had 13 nominations
(Image credit: Collection Christophel / Alamy Stock Photo)

The countdown to this year's Academy Awards has officially begun, with the nominations announced this week.

Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer" dominated the shortlists, with 13 nominations, followed by "Poor Things" with 11 and "Killers of the Flower Moon" with 10.

It was "comfortably the strongest set of nominees in years", said The Independent. With less than two months to go until the big night, "there's still everything to play for, with some of the biggest categories still wide open". 

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Best picture 

Margot Robbie stars as the lead in 'Barbie'

Margot Robbie stars in 'Barbie', the year's highest grossing film worldwide

(Image credit: FlixPix / Alamy Stock Photo)

The contenders for best picture are a range of "major players" encompassing "box office smashes, festival darlings and critical favourites", said The Hollywood Reporter.

"Oppenheimer" has the most nominations picked up by a single film since "The Shape of Water" in 2018, and all seven of Gold Derby's panel of experts have named it as the most likely film to win the award.

Before the nominations, the question had been "Can anyone beat Oppenheimer?", said Slate. "Coming out of the Oscars nominations, the answer is clear: no way."

Best picture nominees:

"American Fiction"

"Anatomy of a Fall"

"Barbie"

"The Holdovers"

"Killers of the Flower Moon"

"Maestro"

"Oppenheimer"

"Past Lives"

"Poor Things"

"The Zone of Interest"

Best director

Cillian Murphy starring in Christopher Nolan's 'Oppenheimer'

Cillian Murphy plays the lead role in Christopher Nolan's 'Oppenheimer'

(Image credit: FlixPix / Alamy Stock Photo)

Nolan is predicted to pick up his first Oscar as best director, setting up his "long-awaited coronation" as "Hollywood's leading filmmaker", said The New York Times. "Barbie", however, "broke two heels, failing to score a directing nomination for Greta Gerwig or a best actress berth for Margot Robbie". 

Nevertheless, Gerwig has become the first female to have directed three best picture nominees ("Little Women", "Lady Bird" and now "Barbie"), and Justine Triet's inclusion for "Anatomy of a Fall" in the best director category meant "the line-up was not entirely male", said the BBC.

Best director nominees:

Justine Triet, "Anatomy of a Fall"

Martin Scorsese, "Killers of the Flower Moon" 

Christopher Nolan, "Oppenheimer"

Yorgos Lanthimos, "Poor Things" 

Jonathan Glazer, "The Zone of Interest" 

Best actor in a leading role 

Bradley Cooper stars as Leonard Bernstein in 'Maestro'

Bradley Cooper stars as Leonard Bernstein in 'Maestro'

(Image credit: FlixPix / Alamy Stock Photo)

At the moment this category feels like "a two-man race" between Cillian Murphy, who plays J Robert Oppenheimer, the man credited with leading the creation of the atomic bomb, and Paul Giamatti, who plays a cranky history teacher in "The Holdovers". Both won a Golden Globe earlier this month.

A win for Bradley Cooper's portrayal of composer-conductor Leonard Bernstein in "Maestro" would see him win his first Academy Award, after nine previous nominations.

Best actor nominees:

Bradley Cooper, "Maestro"

Colman Domingo, "Rustin"

Paul Giamatti, "The Holdovers"

Cillian Murphy, "Oppenheimer"

Jeffrey Wright, "American Fiction"

Best actress in a leading role 

Lily Gladstone stars in 'Killers of the Flower Moon'

Lily Gladstone as Mollie in 'Killers of the Flower Moon'

(Image credit: Album / Alamy Stock Photo)

Emma Stone's "beguilingly bonkers" performance in surreal fantasy "Poor Things" is "worthy of an Oscar", said Brian Viner in the Daily Mail. The experts at Gold Derby agree, with Lily Gladstone in second place for "Killers of the Flower Moon".

There was a lot of buzz about "Poor Things", "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer", said The Daily Beast, but another title has "snuck into some pretty huge categories"; "Nyad", which stars Annette Bening as long-distance swimmer Diana Nyad, must be "a big deal if it earned a nomination in the Best Actress category over 'Barbie' herself, Margot Robbie". 

Best actress nominees:

Annette Bening, "Nyad"

Lily Gladstone, "Killers of the Flower Moon"

Sandra Huller, "Anatomy of a Fall"

Carey Mulligan, "Maestro"

Emma Stone, "Poor Things"

Best actor in a supporting role

Ryan Gosling stars as Ken in Greta Gerwig's 'Barbie' movie

Ryan Gosling as Ken in Greta Gerwig's 'Barbie'

(Image credit: Landmark Media / Alamy Stock Photo)

Academy Awards "tend to overlook purely comedic performances", said MovieWeb.com. But Ryan Gosling's "definitive, gut-bustingly hilarious performance" as Ken in Gerwig's "Barbie" has been nominated for best supporting actor. 

At least "on paper", Gosling has "all the ingredients" to be "victorious", having been nominated for an Oscar twice before but never won. But "he'll face stiff competition" in the category from Robert De Niro in "Killers of the Flower Moon" and Robert Downey Jr in "Oppenheimer". Indeed, Downey Jr. took home the title at the Globes.

Best supporting actor nominees:

Sterling K Brown, "American Fiction"

Robert De Niro, "Killers of the Flower Moon"

Robert Downey Jr, "Oppenheimer"

Ryan Gosling, "Barbie"

Mark Ruffalo, "Poor Things"

Best actress in a supporting role

Danielle Brooks stars in the film adaptation of 'The Color Purple' stage musical

Danielle Brooks stars in the film adaptation of 'The Color Purple' stage musical

(Image credit: Landmark Media / Alamy Stock Photo)

It is "a strong list of nominees" in the supporting actress category, said Screen Rant. "A major shakeup to the race unexpectedly arrived early when it was announced that Lily Gladstone was campaigning for a Best Actress Oscar nomination in 2024."

Da'Vine Joy Randolph received her first Oscar nomination for her performance as a school chef in "The Holdovers". The "emotional role filled with grief and loss" allowed her to have "one of the most memorable performances in the movie" and "now she's positioned to win".

Best supporting actress nominees:

Emily Blunt, "Oppenheimer"

Danielle Brooks, "The Color Purple"

America Ferrera, "Barbie"

Jodie Foster, "Nyad"

Da'Vine Joy Randolph, "The Holdovers"

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