Oscar nominations 2024: who is predicted to win?

The red carpet has been rolled out at the Dolby Theater in Los Angeles in readiness for Sunday's 96th Academy Awards ceremony, and, of course, the nominees are jetting in to LAX airport to attend.

Inside the theatre, the stage is set and "will adjust in subtle ways as the night continues", said Vanity Fair. It's created to "honour the nominees right in the design itself", with images of real typewriters in the screenwriting category, and "many of the nominated costumes" in the costume-design category.

To whet your appetite, the Academy has released a trailer featuring four-time host Jimmy Kimmel. In the UK, the ceremony will be shown on ITV1 from 11pm, with build-up from 9pm on the streaming channel ITVX.

Subscribe to The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up

The Academy members are now "ready to hand out their gongs in what is possibly the most contested, most exciting Oscars in years", said The Times.

Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer", which picked up seven Baftas last month, has no fewer than 13 nominations, followed by "Poor Things" with 11 and "Killers of the Flower Moon" with 10.

It was "comfortably the strongest set of nominees in years", said The Independent. With less than two weeks to go until the big night, "there's still everything to play for, with some of the biggest categories still wide open". 

Best picture 

The contenders for best picture are a range of "major players" encompassing "box office smashes, festival darlings and critical favourites", said The Hollywood Reporter.

"Oppenheimer" has the most nominations picked up by a single film since "The Shape of Water" in 2018, and all seven of Gold Derby's panel of experts have named it as the most likely film to win the award.

Before the nominations, the question had been "Can anyone beat Oppenheimer?", said Slate. "Coming out of the Oscars nominations, the answer is clear: no way."

Best picture nominees:

"American Fiction"

"Anatomy of a Fall"

"Barbie"

"The Holdovers"

"Killers of the Flower Moon"

"Maestro"

"Oppenheimer"

"Past Lives"

"Poor Things"

"The Zone of Interest"

Best director

Nolan is predicted to pick up his first Oscar as best director, setting up his "long-awaited coronation" as "Hollywood's leading filmmaker", said The New York Times. "Barbie", however, "broke two heels, failing to score a directing nomination for Greta Gerwig or a best actress berth for Margot Robbie". 

Nevertheless, Gerwig has become the first female to have directed three best picture nominees ("Little Women", "Lady Bird" and now "Barbie"), and Justine Triet's inclusion for "Anatomy of a Fall" in the best director category meant "the line-up was not entirely male", said the BBC.

Best director nominees:

Justine Triet, "Anatomy of a Fall"

Martin Scorsese, "Killers of the Flower Moon" 

Christopher Nolan, "Oppenheimer"

Yorgos Lanthimos, "Poor Things" 

Jonathan Glazer, "The Zone of Interest" 

Best actor in a leading role 

At the moment this category feels like "a two-man race" between Cillian Murphy, who plays J Robert Oppenheimer, the man credited with leading the creation of the atomic bomb, and Paul Giamatti, who plays a cranky history teacher in "The Holdovers". Both won a Golden Globe last month, and Murphy won the best actor Bafta.

A win for Bradley Cooper's portrayal of composer-conductor Leonard Bernstein in "Maestro" would see him win his first Academy Award, after nine previous nominations.

Best actor nominees:

Bradley Cooper, "Maestro"

Colman Domingo, "Rustin"

Paul Giamatti, "The Holdovers"

Cillian Murphy, "Oppenheimer"

Jeffrey Wright, "American Fiction"

Best actress in a leading role 

As the first Native American woman to be nominated for best actress, Lily Gladstone could make history. The experts at Gold Derby agree, putting her in first place for "Killers of the Flower Moon". But Emma Stone's "beguilingly bonkers" performance in surreal fantasy "Poor Things" is "worthy of an Oscar", said Brian Viner in the Daily Mail. 

However, Gladstone's win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards and Stone's best actress Bafta win means the category is "too close to call", said Steven McIntosh, entertainment reporter for the BBC.

There was a lot of buzz about "Poor Things", "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer", said The Daily Beast, but another title has "snuck into some pretty huge categories"; "Nyad", which stars Annette Bening as long-distance swimmer Diana Nyad, must be "a big deal if it earned a nomination in the Best Actress category over 'Barbie' herself, Margot Robbie". 

Best actress nominees:

Annette Bening, "Nyad"

Lily Gladstone, "Killers of the Flower Moon"

Sandra Huller, "Anatomy of a Fall"

Carey Mulligan, "Maestro"

Emma Stone, "Poor Things"

Best actor in a supporting role

Academy Awards "tend to overlook purely comedic performances", said MovieWeb.com. But Ryan Gosling's "definitive, gut-bustingly hilarious performance" as Ken in Gerwig's "Barbie" has been nominated for best supporting actor. 

At least "on paper", Gosling has "all the ingredients" to be "victorious", having been nominated for an Oscar twice before but never won. But "he'll face stiff competition" in the category from Robert De Niro in "Killers of the Flower Moon" and Robert Downey Jr in "Oppenheimer". Indeed, Downey Jr. took home the title at both the Globes and the Baftas.

Best supporting actor nominees:

Sterling K Brown, "American Fiction"

Robert De Niro, "Killers of the Flower Moon"

Robert Downey Jr, "Oppenheimer"

Ryan Gosling, "Barbie"

Mark Ruffalo, "Poor Things"

Best actress in a supporting role

It is a "strong list of nominees" in the supporting actress category, said Screen Rant. "A major shakeup to the race unexpectedly arrived early when it was announced that Lily Gladstone was campaigning for a Best Actress Oscar nomination in 2024."

Da'Vine Joy Randolph received her first Oscar nomination for her performance as a school chef in "The Holdovers", and has since won the same-category Bafta. The "emotional role filled with grief and loss" allowed her to have "one of the most memorable performances in the movie" and "now she's positioned to win".

Best supporting actress nominees:

Emily Blunt, "Oppenheimer"

Danielle Brooks, "The Color Purple"

America Ferrera, "Barbie"

Jodie Foster, "Nyad"

Da'Vine Joy Randolph, "The Holdovers"

Best costume design

Oscar frontrunners "Poor Things" and "Barbie" were both winners at last month's Costume Designers Guild Awards, which makes it a "tight face-off" for this Oscar, said IndieWire. However, "momentum might be with 'Poor Things' after overtaking 'Barbie'", in this category at the Baftas. We're set for a "showdown between these two", said Variety. Summertime fur coats and neon rollerblading outfits, as seen in "Barbie" seemed "impossible to beat" until the debut of Holly Waddington's "elaborate, imaginative work" on "Poor Things".

Best costume design nominees:

Jacqueline Durran, "Barbie"

Jacqueline West, "Killers of the Flower Moon"

Janty Yates and Dave Crossman, "Napoleon"

Ellen Mirojnick, "Oppenheimer"

Holly Waddington, "Poor Things"

Best international feature film

This category offers the "most interesting movies", said British Vogue, adding that the frontrunner is Jonathan Glazer's "brilliant, years-in-the-making Holocaust film, 'The Zone of Interest'". And, "unlikely to win, but so purely enjoyable it probably should" is 'Perfect Days'. Variety agreed with British Vogue on the winner, tipping "The Zone of Interest" as favourite.

Best international feature film nominees:

"Io Capitano", Italy

"Perfect Days", Japan

"Society of the Snow", Spain

"The Teachers' Lounge", Germany

"The Zone of Interest", United Kingdom

Best animated feature film

Scooping seven Annie Awards, which reward excellence in animation in American cinema and TV, "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse" has "solidified its standing as the Oscar favourite", said IndieWire. "The Boy and the Heron", its "closest Oscar competitor", took home two Annies, but then won the best animated film Bafta, the first non-English-language film to do so. The victory also ended an "18-year streak of US-funded productions winning Best Animated Film at the Baftas", said Deadline.

Best animated feature film nominees:

"The Boy and the Heron"

"Elemental"

"Nimona"

"Robot Dreams"

"Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse"

Best documentary feature film

There's a "rich crop of contenders this year from all corners of the globe", said Screen Daily. However, after winning the Bafta for best documentary, "20 Days in Mariupol" is "now the favourite" for the best documentary Oscar, "days after Ukrainians mark the second anniversary of Russia's invasion", said the BBC.

Best documentary feature film nominees:

"Bobi Wine: The People's President"

"The Eternal Memory"

"Four Daughters"

"To Kill a Tiger"

"20 Days in Mariupol"