David Cameron doomed on current polling figures

The gap between the Tories and Labour has narrowed according to the latest YouGov voting intention poll. After giving the Tories a four-point lead yesterday, YouGov is now showing: Con 33 (down 2), Lab 31 (unchanged), Lib Dems 8 (u/c), Ukip 15 (up 1), Greens 6 (u/c).

This daily to-and-fro is in the nature of polling when things are this tight. What matters are the averages. The New Statesman’s poll of polls average over five days gives the Tories a 1.4 per cent lead over Labour. A seven-day rolling average produced by Ian Jones at UK General Election puts the Tory advantage at just 0.2.

But while the Tories might be just ahead, it’s nowhere enough to give David Cameron any hope of forming a stable government. Unless things change radically between now and 7 May, he looks doomed to running a minority Tory government or quitting Number Ten.

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Analysis by Alberto Nardelli for The Guardian suggests that, based on current polling averages, the Conservatives will win 279 seats against Labour’s 266. The SNP will have 52, the Lib Dems 27, Ukip four and the Greens just one.

You need 326 to form a Commons majority - so how might a working coalition be achieved by either party?

Because of the predicted fall in the Lib Dems’ popularity, a new Tory-Lib Dem pact isn’t going to happen (add 27 to 279 and you’re still way off 326). Add Ukip’s four (if anyone would agree to such a deal) and it doesn’t really help.

A Labour partnership with the SNP would not be enough for a majority (266 + 52 = 318). But if the Lib Dems entered a three-party coalition, the total would be 345. More than enough.

Needless to say, this is all very hypothetical. Eight weeks is a very long time in politics – and both main parties need to make the most of it.