David Cameron doomed on current polling figures

Analysis of polling averages shows Tories winning more seats than Labour, but unable to form a coalition

Columnist Don Brind

The gap between the Tories and Labour has narrowed according to the latest YouGov voting intention poll. After giving the Tories a four-point lead yesterday, YouGov is now showing: Con 33 (down 2), Lab 31 (unchanged), Lib Dems 8 (u/c), Ukip 15 (up 1), Greens 6 (u/c).

This daily to-and-fro is in the nature of polling when things are this tight. What matters are the averages. The New Statesman’s poll of polls average over five days gives the Tories a 1.4 per cent lead over Labour. A seven-day rolling average produced by Ian Jones at UK General Election puts the Tory advantage at just 0.2.

Subscribe to The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE
https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516.jpg

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up
Explore More
To continue reading this article...
Continue reading this article and get limited website access each month.
Get unlimited website access, exclusive newsletters plus much more.
Cancel or pause at any time.
Already a subscriber to The Week?
Not sure which email you used for your subscription? Contact us
is a former BBC lobby correspondent and Labour press officer who is watching the polls for The Week in the run-up to the 2015 election.