What is Iran's endgame?
Tehran seeks to supplant US and Saudi Arabia as dominant power in Middle East while forcing Israel to end Gaza war
A deadly drone attack on a US military base in Jordan has threatened to ignite the tinderbox of tensions in the Middle East and provoke direct confrontation between the US and Iran.
Rishi Sunak has urged Iran to "de-escalate" after a missile attack on the Tower 22 outpost killed three US troops and injured 34 others. Joe Biden blamed "radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq" for the "despicable" attack and promised to retaliate.
Iran's Foreign Ministry has denied any involvement, calling such accusations "baseless" and a "conspiracy" by those "interested in dragging the US into a new conflict in the region to intensify the crisis". But the strikes have sparked "calls for a firm response against Iran", said The Wall Street Journal, as Iranian-backed militant groups and proxies across the Middle East known as the axis of resistance have "targeted Americans".
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei said this month that the "resistance must keep its strength up and be ready, not falling for the enemy's tricks, and, God willing, wherever possible, deliver a blow", with the aim of forcing Israel to end its war in Gaza. But American officials believed Tehran recognised that a direct war with the US "would be deeply damaging", said The New York Times, and would rein in its proxies, including powerful militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon and Yemeni Houthi rebels. That theory may have been "dashed by the Jordan attack".
What did the commentators say?
Iran knows that outright war with the US would "cost it dearly", said Simon Tisdall in The Guardian. But since the Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October, "an escalating, four-month spiral of violence, principally involving pro-Palestinian, Iran-backed militias, has been inexorably building".
Iran's leaders have expressed their support for Hamas and condemnation of Israel, but Tehran was "content" for its proxies "to lead the military response", said the Financial Times, with strikes against Israel, US forces and commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
But in recent weeks, a series of attacks against Iran and senior proxy leaders "appear to have compelled Iran to up the ante", including an Israeli air strike that killed Hamas's deputy political leader, Saleh al-Arourir, in Beirut, and an Islamic State suicide bombing less than 24 hours later that killed almost 100 Iranians (for which Iran initially blamed both the US and Israel).
Iran launched missile attacks on various anti-Iranian terrorist groups in neighbouring Iraq, Syria and – in a dramatic escalation – nuclear-armed Pakistan. "Involving Pakistan and Erbil [northern Iraq] sends a message directly to the Israelis and the Americans," an Iranian official told the FT. "The message is 'don't mess with Iran, and finish the war in Gaza'."
Iran's ultimate aim is to "drive American troops out of their bases in Iraq, Syria and the Gulf", said Tisdall, and replace the US and Saudi Arabia as the dominant power in the Middle East – while strengthening Tehran's allegiances with China and Russia. The war in Gaza, and the US's backing of Israel, "afforded an unmissable opportunity to advance that objective".
The "regional instability" created by Iran's proxy forces also enables the regime to "reinforce their hold on power" domestically, said Jawad Iqbal in The Spectator, and "deflect from the growing problems at home". Tehran "demands loyalty" from Iranians by constructing the illusion the country is "under growing threat from a range of sinister forces".
What next?
It is unclear whether the attack in Jordan was "a deliberate escalation by Iran and its local ally, Iraq's Islamic Resistance militia", or "another random, opportunistic drone strike", said Tisdall. But either way, "Biden is under huge pressure to hit back directly at Tehran". And in the run-up to the US election, he "may not be able to resist such pressure".
The concern, according to Ali Vaez, an Iran expert at Crisis Group, is that "Tehran will turn to another avenue to up the stakes with the US – its nuclear programme".
A December report by the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran had increased its rate of production of uranium enriched up to 60% purity, close to weapons grade. "I'm afraid Iran's nuclear calculus could change," Vaez told the FT.
Ultimately, Iran's endgame is its own self-preservation, said Sanam Vakil, Middle East programme director at Chatham House. "Iran's number one priority is Iran, and we should never forget that," she said. "Iran will not mobilise its own forces unless it is directly hit."
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Harriet Marsden is a writer for The Week, mostly covering UK and global news and politics. Before joining the site, she was a freelance journalist for seven years, specialising in social affairs, gender equality and culture. She worked for The Guardian, The Times and The Independent, and regularly contributed articles to The Sunday Times, The Telegraph, The New Statesman, Tortoise Media and Metro, as well as appearing on BBC Radio London, Times Radio and “Woman’s Hour”. She has a master’s in international journalism from City University, London, and was awarded the "journalist-at-large" fellowship by the Local Trust charity in 2021.
-
The Onion is having a very ironic laugh with Infowars
The Explainer The satirical newspaper is purchasing the controversial website out of bankruptcy
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
'Rahmbo, back from Japan, will be looking for a job? Really?'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
What's next for electric vehicles under Trump?
Today's Big Question And what does that mean for Tesla's Elon Musk?
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Israel attacks Iran: a 'limited' retaliation
Talking Point Iran's humiliated leaders must decide how to respond to Netanyahu's measured strike
By The Week UK Published
-
Has the Taliban banned women from speaking?
Today's Big Question 'Rambling' message about 'bizarre' restriction joins series of recent decrees that amount to silencing of Afghanistan's women
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Cuba's energy crisis
The Explainer Already beset by a host of issues, the island nation is struggling with nationwide blackouts
By Rebekah Evans, The Week UK Published
-
The death of Hassan Nasrallah
In the Spotlight The killing of Hezbollah's leader is 'seismic event' in the conflict igniting in the Middle East
By The Week UK Published
-
Putin's fixation with shamans
Under the Radar Secretive Russian leader, said to be fascinated with occult and pagan rituals, allegedly asked for blessing over nuclear weapons
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Israel's suspected mobile device offensive pushes region closer to chaos
In the Spotlight After the mass explosion of pagers and walkie-talkies assigned to Hezbollah operatives across Lebanon, is all-out regional war next, or will Israel and its neighbors step back from the brink?
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Chimpanzees are dying of human diseases
Under the radar Great apes are vulnerable to human pathogens thanks to genetic similarity, increased contact and no immunity
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Deaths of Jesse Baird and Luke Davies hang over Sydney's Mardi Gras
The Explainer Police officer, the former partner of TV presenter victim, charged with two counts of murder after turning himself in
By Austin Chen, The Week UK Published