Democrats scare off the median voter
The Democratic Party, with the narrowest of majorities, is trying to pass two bills through Congress that, in their current form, would increase federal spending by roughly $4.5 trillion with an as-yet indeterminate amount of compensating revenue increases. At the same time, the Democrats also want to boost the party's popularity heading into the 2022 midterms and, ultimately, the 2024 presidential election.
If a recent Matthew Yglesias Substack post is right, it might not be possible to do both.
That's because, as Yglesias argues, the median voter in America is a 50-something white person who didn't graduate from college and lives in the suburbs of an unfashionable American city. And this median voter is unlikely to support policies favored by the party's progressive caucus, which has so far had the biggest say on what's in these bills. That means that the Democrats are spending months trying to pass legislation that's well to the left of the median American voter when appealing to the median voter is the best, and perhaps only, way to increase the political power of Democrats in Washington over the next few election cycles.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Now, of course this doesn't mean the Dems should mimic Republicans and pass a big tax cut and support no new significant spending. Yglesias' median voter theorem applies most powerfully to culture-war issues, and some of the policy proposals in the two spending bills — hard infrastructure (roads and bridges), for example, as well as regulations on prescription drug pricing — are quite broadly popular. The Democrats would be foolish not to pass and run on these initiatives in 2022 and beyond.
But much of the rest of what's in especially the second, much larger ($3.5 trillion) bill? It's a mixed bag, like the bill itself. Some items poll well, others less so. But as progressive pundit Eric Levitz admits, the enormous spending Congress passed early on in the Biden presidency (including substantial checks sent to many millions of Americans) didn't do much of anything to boost Biden's approval rating. So whether any item in the current spending bills does anything to help Democrats is unclear. But what is clear is that the enormous overall price tag will almost certainly be hung around the party's neck by Republicans as the country heads into the midterms.
That won't hurt progressive members of the Democratic caucus in the House, who in most cases come from safely blue districts. But Democrats from purple districts, like many Democratic senators up for re-election next year, could find themselves running headlong into a Republican buzz saw if Biden ends up signing the larger bill in its current form.
It certainly wouldn't be the first time Democrats traded a progressive victory on policy for broader popularity and future power.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Damon Linker is a senior correspondent at TheWeek.com. He is also a former contributing editor at The New Republic and the author of The Theocons and The Religious Test.
-
Will Gary Lineker's departure be an own goal for the BBC?
Today's Big Question Former star striker turned highest-paid presenter will leave Match of the Day after 25 years, with BBC head of sport reportedly declining to offer him a contract
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The potential impact of Trump tariffs for the UK
UK goods exports to the US could be hit with tariffs of up to 20% seriously affecting the British economy
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Shoot to Kill: Terror on the Tube – a 'raw' and 'riveting' docuseries
The Week Recommends Channel 4's 'gripping' two-part show explores the Metropolitan police killing of an innocent man in the aftermath of 7/7
By Irenie Forshaw, The Week UK Published
-
US election: who the billionaires are backing
The Explainer More have endorsed Kamala Harris than Donald Trump, but among the 'ultra-rich' the split is more even
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
US election: where things stand with one week to go
The Explainer Harris' lead in the polls has been narrowing in Trump's favour, but her campaign remains 'cautiously optimistic'
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Donald Trump and the fascism debate
Talking Points Democrats sound the alarm, but Republicans say 'it's always the F-word'
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Would Trump really use the military against Americans?
Talking Points The former president says troops could be used against 'enemy within'
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Trump blames migrants for the housing crisis. Experts aren't so sure.
Talking Points Migrants need housing. They also build it.
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Is Trump okay?
Today's Big Question Former president's mental fitness and alleged cognitive decline firmly back in the spotlight after 'bizarre' town hall event
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The life and times of Kamala Harris
The Explainer The vice-president is narrowly leading the race to become the next US president. How did she get to where she is now?
By The Week UK Published
-
Who are undecided voters, anyway?
Talking Points They might decide the presidential election
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published