Ed Miliband: an apology – you are not about to lose your seat

Politicians are often said to find ‘sorry’ the hardest word to utter. Not so the pollster peer Lord Ashcroft who has owned up to having made a mistake in last Thursday’s sensational poll which suggested Labour leader Ed Miliband could lose his Doncaster North seat in the coming general election.

The poll claimed that Labour’s lead over Ukip in the Yorkshire seat was only 12 points. As I reported on the day, this meant that if Tory voters were to vote tactically for Ukip, they could oust Miliband, leaving Labour possibly winning the general election but without a leader to put in 10 Downing Street.

Now it turns out that far from having a lead of only a 12 percentage points over Ukip in Doncaster North, Miliband actually has a nice fat cushion of a 29-point lead over the Faragistes. That’s more than the margin by which he won the seat over the Tories at the 2010 general election and makes him a shoo-in next May.

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“I hope readers will appreciate that I always aim to conduct my research to the highest standards, that data is always checked, and that instances like this are very rare. My apologies to all readers and especially to Ed Miliband,” says the Tory peer in a “correction” posted yesterday.

His frank admission brought a commendation from an unexpected quarter – the Labour activists’ website, Labour List.

Editor Mark Ferguson writes: “Former Tory donor Ashcroft has won praise from across the political spectrum for his efforts in political polling, especially the attention given to marginals. While this clarification may be embarrassing, his frank mea culpa is likely to help his reputation.”

So how did the Doncaster North mistake happen? As with all polls, the raw data from the Ashcroft survey of the constituency were weighted to seek to ensure that the sample was representative of the social make-up of the seat. This is done by comparing the sample to census data.

Said Ashcroft: “A mistake at the data processing stage meant that the poll included too many Conservative voters and not enough Labour voters.”

He credits another pollster, Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report, for spotting the mistake.

“The weighting appears to be seriously askew, weighted as if the seat had a Conservative majority at the previous election,” said Wells. “I’ve spoken to Ashcroft’s office and it appears to be a human error – typing the wrong weighting target in the wrong box.”

The re-weighting dramatically changes Miliband’s standing in his seat. “In a nutshell,” says Ashcroft, “Labour lead Ukip by 29 points in Doncaster North, not 12; Miliband leads Cameron as best PM by 14 points, not one point; Miliband’s constituents would rather see him as PM than Cameron; they give him the highest ratings of the four main party leaders, not the third highest; and they trust Miliband and Balls more on the economy than Cameron and Osborne, not the reverse.”

It was a teasing tweet from Lord Ashcroft on the eve of publication of his Doncaster North survey – in which he suggested the tactical voting notion - that set this ball rolling and provoked immediate excitement in the Ukip camp.

Nigel Farage retweeted Ashcroft’s post, adding: “This is brilliant! But what will Mr. Cameron choose?” He then added: “So what's it going to be, Mr. Cameron? Instruct your party to keep Miliband in?”

And of course the story was widely reported because it appeared to chime with the narrative of a hapless and beleaguered Labour leader.

Actually, it is Miliband who has the last laugh. Lord Ashcroft’s polling in the constituencies of Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage have not had to be corrected: and they show Clegg in danger of losing Sheffield Hallam to Labour, and Farage at risk of not getting elected in South Thanet, because the Tories are ahead there.

Incidentally, Ashcroft’s correction was published along with the results of his latest national voting intention poll: Labour 32 per cent, Conservatives 30 per cent, Ukip 16 per cent, Lib Dems seven per cent, Greens six per cent.

The Labour lead over the Tories is down by two points compared to the previous week’s poll, thanks to a three-point rise in the Tory share and a two-point drop for Ukip.

Conservatives will hope this reflects a positive reaction to David Cameron’s pledge on Friday to curb benefits payable to EU migrants – and that Ukip support might have peaked. Non-partisan political observers will want more polling evidence before they can make that call.