While Russia's economy has faced significant turmoil due to heavy war-related sanctions, the country's currency has not suffered. The Russian ruble has grown significantly and is up 45% against the U.S. dollar this year. But according to financial analysts, the spike in the ruble’s value may do more harm than good to Russia's economy.
What did the commentators say? The ruble has become the "best-performing global currency, posting this year's strongest gains against the dollar," said Bloomberg. The ruble has even outperformed generally safe commodities like gold and silver, as well as typically strong European currencies like the Swedish krona and Swiss franc.
The spike in the ruble has been "driven primarily by the central bank's tight monetary policy and optimism" that the war in Ukraine could end, said Reuters. The Bank of Russia's handling of China's currency, the yuan, has also played a role, as Russia has been "selling the Chinese yuan, its only major intervention tool, to support the ruble."
The "strength of the ruble has less to do with a sudden jump in foreign investors' confidence than with capital controls and policy tightening," said CNBC. Russia's central bank has "maintained a restrictive stance to curtail high inflation," and there has also been a "decline in foreign currency demand from local importers" due to the shrinking U.S. dollar, Andrei Melaschenko, an economist at Renaissance Capital, said to CNBC.
What next? While the ruble has been extremely strong, this could cause cascading problems for Russia's economy. While the ruble's "strength might cheer traders, the Russian government likely prefers the opposite," said Business Insider. When a country's currency appreciates, it can "diminish export revenue, threatening to weigh on the nation's budget."
The "sharp appreciation is proving to be a double-edged sword for the heavily sanctioned Russian economy," said Reuters. Russia's central bank "cut the benchmark interest rate by two percentage points to 18%" in the "latest sign of the country's economic slowdown," said The New York Times.
Many economists think the ruble is a moot point. The country is seeing a "prelude to stagflation," said the Times, when "an economy and employment stop growing but prices continue to rise." |