Governments around the world are trying new policies to boost birth rates. China this week said it will offer new parents a subsidy of $500 per child, for example. But what happens to humanity if the fertility crisis cannot be reversed? Global fertility is at the lowest rate in "recorded history," creating a potential "depopulation bomb," said Greg Ip at The Wall Street Journal.
'Dramatically overstated' People are "freaking out" about falling birth rates, said NPR. A "shrinking and aging population" will likely cause "even greater political instability," said Gideon Lewis-Kraus at The New Yorker. That's because fewer people mean a smaller economy, which in turn means there's "less to go around." But while America's birth rates are falling, "we still have a natural increase" in the population, said the University of Colorado's Leslie Root to CBS News.
Population collapse is "not imminent, inevitable or necessarily catastrophic," said Root at The Conversation. The United Nations projects the world will grow to 10 billion people by 2100. So it's "unrealistic" to believe that birth rates will "follow predictable patterns." While there will be "changes in population structure," those shifts have been "dramatically overstated."
"Global fertility trends are much worse" than U.N. demographers think, said Marc Novicoff at The Atlantic. And while it's true that birth rates have rebounded after past lows, "this time really does look different." That should be "alarming."
Japan's economy was 18% of the world GDP in 1994, but its population got older, and its economy is now "just 4% of the global economy," said Novicoff. If birth rates do not pick up, the rest of the world will also experience a "smaller, sadder, poorer future."
A more peaceful world? A possible upside is that depopulation could lead to a "Pax Geriatrica" in which "aging significantly reduces the likelihood of war," said Mark. L. Haas at Foreign Affairs. Governments will be "forced to attend to their aging populations," which will create societies "less capable and tolerant of waging war."
Falling birth rates will test a lot of assumptions, said Bloomberg. A lot of theories about the "way that the world works" were formed when "we just assumed the population would continue growing," said demographer Jennifer Sciubba to Bloomberg. But rethinking old approaches may be difficult, said Bloomberg, as a "shrinking world would mean fewer innovators." |