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  • The Week Evening Review
    Latest midterm polls, the cost of libertarian votes, and Viktor Orbán’s UN chances

     
    in the spotlight

    What to expect in tomorrow’s midterm elections 

    After months of fiercely fought campaigns across the country, the 2026 midterms are finally here. Have Democrats convinced voters to send them to Washington as a bulwark against President Donald Trump’s MAGA government? While early election data shows Democrats in a strong position to capture at least one chamber of Congress, nothing is set in stone until polls close tomorrow night.

    ‘Huge chance’ but ‘still not 100%’
    A “wave of new polls” could “point to just that” for Democrats, said anchor John Berman on CNN — a “wave.” If polling from The New York Times and Siena bears out on Election Day, Democrats will “take the Senate with room to spare.”

    Data showing Democrats 9 points up on Republicans is “important” because that “easily overcomes GOP redistricting,” said Harry Enten, the chief data analyst at CNN, on “The Enten Scale.” Although Enten places odds of the Democrats taking the House at more than 90%, he states Democrats have just 72% odds of flipping the Senate — a “huge chance” but “still not 100%.” The GOP’s 29% likelihood of keeping the Senate “ain’t nothing.”

    Democratic advantages have allowed candidates to play in races Republicans “thought were unreachable,” said Fox News. But these are “only to the point of making them battlegrounds.”

    ‘Inherently imprecise’ but ‘in the ballpark’
    The media “just can’t let go of their obsession with polls” in an election “dominated by ‘horse race’ reporting,” said USA Today. “Breathless updates” about single-point shifts in certain races presume “such statistical noise actually matters.” But while polls are “inherently imprecise” and subject to “many sources of error,” you can trust them to “usually be in the ballpark,” said pollster Nate Cohn at the Times.

    Democrats are “flexing their early voting strength,” said The Guardian, having cast 43% of early votes, compared to Republicans’ 31%. The “overall picture” of early vote trends “offers few positives for Republicans,” said the Times, affording observers "clues about which subgroups are turning out.” Still, the “impact” of the early votes will ultimately “be known only after polls close.”

     
     
    QUOTE OF THE DAY

    ‘Agent Orange — they drop it in the forest for years and years and years, instead of going after Ho Chi Minh City.’

    Trump, at a rally in Dubuque, Iowa, on the U.S.’s strategy in the Vietnam War. Saigon, now Ho Chi Minh City, was the capital of U.S.-backed South Vietnam. “I could have won the Vietnam War in a week,” he also said.

     
     
    talking points

    Libertarians may throw a wrench in GOP midterm hopes

    With Republicans clinging to power against a flurry of polls that predict a blue wave in tomorrow’s elections, an additional foe could spell trouble for the GOP: libertarians. Some believe a roster of Libertarian Party candidates could ruin Republicans’ best chances during the midterms.

    ‘Protest ballots’
    While many analysts say the GOP’s efforts are futile due to nationwide frustration with the Trump administration, there are numerous battleground states in play. But “unhappiness with President Donald Trump could lead some conservatives to cast protest ballots,” said Thomas Beaumont at The Associated Press. 

    Some voters could be swayed to vote Libertarian, a party that runs on a “message of nonintervention and limited centralized authority,” said Beaumont. The party “could draw enough votes to affect the outcome in a number of these races,” said former GOP Ohio state lawmaker Gene Krebs to the AP.

    Three key states include Iowa, Kansas and Texas. Libertarians here are “polling in the low single digits, but their appeal to disaffected Republican voters could prove decisive in races with little separating the major-party contenders,” said Sarah Fortinsky at The Hill. Texas may end up the most prominent example, where Libertarian candidate Ted Brown “offers Republicans wary of Paxton an alternative to both their scandal-ridden Senate nominee and Democrat James Talarico.”

    ‘Risky and controversial’
    Even as Republican strategists are worried, others think the Libertarian Party could hurt Democrats in a similar manner. In U.S. politics, “boosting third-party spoilers is a bipartisan sport,” said Isaac Arnsdorf, Mariana Alfaro and Erin Cox at The Washington Post. In the “Pennsylvania, Michigan and Virginia battleground races, independents and Green candidates have popped up as left-wing alternatives to Democrats,” even as “social media and voter registration history show them as supporters” of Trump.

    The “big question is not just how much of the vote Libertarian candidates will win in these contests” but also whether Democratic PACs spent enough money in “support of those Libertarian candidates,” said Lauren Egan at The Bulwark. While it can be a “risky and controversial tactic, promoting third-party spoiler candidates is not without precedent.”

     
     

    Statistic of the day

    $5 billion: FIFA’s reported earnings from ticket and hospitality sales at this summer’s World Cup, according to The New York Times. The 2022 Qatar tournament, the last before dynamic ticket pricing, brought in $929 million. Soccer’s governing body has not confirmed this year’s figure.

     
     
    today’s big question

    Is Viktor Orbán being primed for the UN’s top job?

    It would be “strange to think of a person less inclined toward the U.N.,” said Balkan Insight. But Hungary’s former authoritarian leader Viktor Orbán is reportedly being touted by the Trump administration to be the international organization’s next secretary-general. “You read that correctly,” said The Wall Street Journal. 

    What did the commentators say?
    “Failed liberal politicians” often end up in roles at “intergovernmental networks and transnational bureaucracies,” Philip Cunliffe, an international relations professor at University College London, said at UnHerd, and Orbán has a “more impressive electoral track record than most liberals elevated to the transnational stage before him.” But in proposing Orbán to replace António Guterres, the Trump administration has “upended diplomatic protocol.”

    There are “plenty of reasons” not to back Orbán, not least because he would “act as an apologist for Vladimir Putin and other dictators,” said the Journal. But the U.S., China and Russia are “believed to be supportive” of the plan, and when three of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council want the same thing, they “usually get it.” Orbán would be the “dream MAGA-conservative candidate,” said a U.S. Department of State official to the outlet.

    Some “U.N. watchers” think Orbán is being used as a “‘stalking horse’ to make the case for another more pragmatic contender,” said Josie Esnor at The Times. “Momentum has quickly shifted” toward British-educated Emirati diplomat Lana Nusseibeh, prompting “speculation that she may have been America’s first choice all along.” But Nusseibeh has faced criticism for denying that the UAE is fueling Sudan’s civil war by supporting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

    What next?
    Guterres’ second five-year term as U.N. secretary-general ends on Dec. 31. Seven candidates are officially running to replace him, including Nusseibeh but not Orbán yet.

    With all five Security Council permanent members “so tied to and dependent on the UAE, it will be no surprise if they eventually wave Nusseibeh through,” said Dino Mahtani at Middle East Eye. “But don’t expect her to act in the interest of the victims of wars, mass atrocities and genocides.”

     
     

    Good day 🧑‍🧒

    … for conquering viruses. Barbados has eliminated mother-to-child transmission of HIV nationwide, according to the World Health Organization. The Caribbean nation joins 26 other countries that have eradicated this HIV pathway, marking a “major public health milestone,” said the WHO in a press release.

     
     

    Bad day 🫀

    … for pounding energy drinks. Young adults are at greater risk for heart problems if they consume beverages with stimulants, according to a study of 28,000 medical events by the American Heart Association. Cardiac arrest is linked 11 times more often to energy drinks than to nonstimulant products. 

     
     
    Picture of the day

    Fire and folklore

    A man spits fire at La Calabiuza festival in Tonacatepeque, El Salvador. The annual celebration blends All Saints’ Day with Indigenous traditions. It’s “not El Salvadoran Halloween,” said the National Hispanic Center, but rather a “time to remember lost loved ones” and “honor El Salvadoran history and culture.” 
    Marvin Recinos / AFP / Getty Images

     
     
    Puzzles

    Daily sudoku

    Challenge yourself with The Week’s daily sudoku, part of our puzzles section, which also includes guess the number

    Play here

     
     
    The Week recommends

    Explore Chiricahua, the country’s new national park

    Sitting in the southeastern corner of Arizona, Chiricahua has for centuries been a central part of Apache life and last month was designated the 64th U.S. national park. Here’s how to best experience it.

    Extraordinary rock formations
    President Calvin Coolidge named Chiricahua, pronounced “cheery-COW-uh,” a national monument in 1924, courtesy of its geological marvels. The area’s rock spires, akin to Bryce Canyon’s hoodoos, were created from a volcano’s “spectacular series of eruptions,” said NASA. 

    To get a sense of the park’s breadth, drive to Massai Point, where a “manageable half-mile nature trail offers sweeping views from different vantage points,” said Kris Ann Valdez at Afar. You can also explore on foot across the “park’s showstopper,” the Heart of Rocks loop, with legendary formations like Duck on a Rock, said Timberline Adventures. The best months for a temperate visit are March to May and September to November.

    Birding and bedding
    “One of the legendary spots in all of American birding,” Cave Creek in Chiricahua is where to spot the Elegant Trogon, a species that “links southeastern Arizona with the tropics,” said Arizona Birding Trail. The park also hosts 200 to 500 resident and migratory species, along with the coatimundi, a sleek cousin of the raccoon.

    Willcox, the closest town with “basic services,” is an hour away by car, said National Park Obsessed. You can also sleep in a tent at Bonita Canyon Campground, located at the park’s western limit.

     
     

    Poll watch

    Nearly half of Americans (48%) say the cost of living and inflation remains their top issue heading into the midterms, according to a TIPP survey of 1,325 registered voters. A third (33%) report the general economy is the biggest issue, while 24% say it’s healthcare. 

     
     
    INSTANT OPINION

    Today’s best commentary

    ‘I’m a conservative. Republicans deserve to lose. Badly.’
    Tim Swarens at USA Today
    The “solid mandate” 2024 voters gave the GOP has been “largely squandered,” says Tim Swarens. Trump deserves credit for his “victories in 2025,” but 2026 has been “filled with one embarrassing misstep after another.” And as Election Day nears, the “presidential balance sheet looks like a disaster.” The GOP needs to see the “impending election losses” as an opportunity to develop leaders with a “compelling vision” for what “America could become” instead of “indulging in divisive cultural wars.”

    ‘America’s zero-trust reality’ 
    Andy Kessler at The Wall Street Journal
    Most photos and videos online now “require a second and third look,” says Andy Kessler. Everything “is suspect,” and we should “get used to this.” We still “can’t trust the output” of AI models “because of hallucinations,” but catching them “takes a discerning eye — a new skill.” Until “digital trust is figured out,” maybe that’s the upside of the “(supposedly) job-destroying AI revolution.” There’s so much AI slop that “only humans will be trusted — jobs with warm bodies as the trust layer.”

    ‘This is how MAHA ends’ 
    Jessica Grose at The New York Times
    If all the “doctors running as Democrats” win office, they will “meaningfully shift the balance of physicians” in the Senate and the House “away from Republicans,” says Jessica Grose. If they succeed, they can “reclaim the mantle of health and wellness as a winning issue” for Democrats. Though Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “pulled off a feat of great marketing” with his MAHA movement, it “never represented a majority of Americans who care about health.” 

     
     
    WORD OF THE DAY

    mebufotenin

    A psychedelic compound found in the Sonoran desert toad’s secretions and some plants. In a clinical trial, a single dose of fast-acting mebufotenin benzoate as a nasal spray has rapidly improved symptoms in patients with treatment-resistant depression, said Popular Science, with “benefits lasting throughout the eight-week trial.”
     
     

    Evening Review was written and edited by Theara Coleman, Nadia Croes,  Scott Hocker, Anya Jaremko-Greenwold, Justin Klawans and Rafi Schwartz, with illustrations by Stephen Kelly.

    Image credits, from top: Emily Elconin / Bloomberg / Getty Images; Illustration by Stephen P. Kelly / Getty Images; Illustration by Stephen P. Kelly / Getty Images; Tom Walker / Getty Images
     

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