Polls all over the place: it’s still an extremely close race

Tories will doubtless seize on yesterday’s Guardian/ICM poll – it showed a sensational six per cent jump in Tory support over the past month - as evidence that they can get back to where they were at the last election and give David Cameron a chance of hanging on to his job on 7 May.

The jump puts the Tories four points ahead of Labour who dropped a point month on month, reversing a Labour lead of three points in January: Con 36 (up 6), Lab 32 (down 1), Lib Dems 9 (down 1), Ukip 9 (down 2), Greens 7 (down 2).

It’s the Tories’ strongest showing in the ICM poll since May 2012, and puts them only a point down on their 2010 general election share. Before Christmas, the same poll had them on a miserable 28 per cent.

Subscribe to The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up

ICM polls are taken seriously. As The Guardian reports, “having come closest to predicting three of the last four general elections, ICM’s regular phone poll for the Guardian is seen as the gold standard.”

That said, the paper reports ICM's findings with a dose of scepticism. “The strength of the Tories’ showing is all the more notable because it comes after a week during which the Conservatives were under pressure over their connections with wealthy donors, with Cameron’s 2011 move to appoint HSBC boss Stephen Green drawing fire in parliament.

“It also contrasts with three surveys published over the weekend, and a fourth on Monday, which registered Labour leads of two to three points.”

Martin Boon, director of ICM Research, also cautioned against putting too much weight on any single survey. However, he said: “As the days tick down to 7 May, it could just be that some of those voters who have been flirting with upstart parties during much of this parliament are finally returning to the more established political tribes, and to the Conservatives in particular.”

Boon’s caution is more than justified. The ICM poll is in sharp contrast to yesterday’s Ashcroft National Poll which showed a four-point drop in Tory support week on week: Con 30 (down 4), Lab 31 (unchanged), Lib Dems 9 (u/c), Ukip 16 (down 2), Greens 8 (up 2).

It marks the first time this year that Labour have been ahead in an Ashcroft National Poll and as Lord Ashcroft notes: “The narrow margin for Labour echoes most recent published polls.”

A third poll released yesterday afternoon - from Populus – was right in line with the current averages, showing a two per cent Labour lead: Con 31 (u/c), Lab 33 (down 1), Lib Dems 10 (up 1), Ukip 15 (up 1), Others 11 (down 1).

Yesterday was unusual but not unprecedented. The same thing happened in the second week of January when Ashcroft had the Tories six points ahead while Populus had Labour five in front. A week later both pollsters had the two parties on level-pegging.

And to put yesterday’s polls in perspective, there have been more than 60 polls since the beginning of the year and there will be at least 100 more by 7 May.

Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report says the contrasting ICM and Ashcroft results are “random noise”, caused by normal sample error. “Putting all four polls together I think it’s pretty much business as usual. One neck-and-neck, one Tory lead, two Labour leads.

“There is nothing here that’s incompatible with the steady picture we’ve had for the last six weeks: an extremely close race between Labour and Conservative, with Labour holding onto a tiny lead.”

After a heady Monday, this morning’s YouGov poll for The Sun shows a tie between the main parties: Con 32 (u/c), Lab 32 (down 3), Lib Dems 6 (down 1), Ukip 16 (down 1), Greens 8 (up 1).

The three-point Labour drop might encourage the Tories – but where’s the corresponding rise in Conservative support? YouGov president Peter Kellner predicted in the Sunday Times that the Tories will lead Labour 35-30 by election day. We shall see.