A record number of British voters want the UK to stay in Europe, according to a new YouGov poll. It finds 45 per cent of respondents favouring continued membership against 35 per cent who want out. The ten per cent margin is the biggest ever recorded by the pollster since it began asking the question in 2010.
The finding coincides with a drop in support over the past month for the ‘get-out-of-Europe-now’ Ukippers, according to UK Polling Report.
Eight of the ten regular polls this month have shown falls in Ukip support of between one and four per cent. As I reported yesterday, Lord Ashcroft’s latest poll showed Ukip down five points – the lowest ever in an Ashcroft national voting intention poll. Now the new Survation monthly poll for the Daily Mirror has the Faragists down by four points.
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But why the increased appeal of Brussels? It appears that support for the European Union rises or falls in tandem with rising economic confidence, says YouGov president Peter Kellner.
YouGov’s measure for personal financial confidence - the ‘feel-good factor’ - also reached an all-time high recently. It is possible, says Kellner, that voters have become "less interested in disrupting the status quo as they have increasingly felt its rewards".
As for the main parties’ chances on 7 May, the Survation poll gives Labour a six-point lead over the Tories: Con 28 (down 3), Lab 34 (up 4), Lib Dems 10 (up 3), Ukip 19 (down 4), Greens 4 (down 1).
But just as we had two polls going in different directions yesterday, so we have ‘poller opposites’ again today: YouGov for The Sun has the Tories two points ahead of Labour: Con 35 (up 2), Lab 33 (unchanged), Lib Dems 6 (down 2) Ukip 14 (down 1), Greens 7 (u/c).
In short, you have to conclude that with 71 days to go, Labour and the Conservatives remain neck-and-neck.
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