Some Scottish Tories ready to vote Labour to keep SNP out

Tactical voting against the Scottish Nationalists could prevent Nicola Sturgeon hitting the 50-plus seats target pollsters have been predicting, according to analysis of a YouGov poll for Channel 4 news.

The poll suggests that in seats north of the border where only Labour can stop the SNP, at least two out of five Tory voters would be prepared to back Ed Miliband's candidate.

A straight projection for The Times by YouGov gives the SNP a 24-point lead over Labour. As a result, Miliband faces losing all but four of the party’s current seats 41, wiping out many of the gains he hopes to make in England at the expense of the Tories and the Lib Dems.

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Now it seems it might not turn out that badly. On behalf of Channel 4 News, YouGov asked an extra question to test the appetite for tactical voting.

Would Scottish supporters of the three unionist parties - Tory, Labour and the Lib Dems - switch their votes to the party with the best chance of defeating the SNP?

The result? Suddenly the SNP lead falls from 24 to 15 points. Channel 4 News political editor Gary Gibbon reckons tactical voting could save Labour up to nine of the Scottish seats they stood to lose.

The Lib Dems would benefit too, possibly holding on to three Scottish seats rather than losing them all, as some have predicted.

In short, if the Scots do take to tactical voting in decent numbers on 7 May, the Scottish group in the Commons could look like this: SNP 42, Lab 13, Lib Dems three, Tories one.

Excluding Don’t Knows, the YouGov poll suggests that 44 per cent of Conservative supporters are ready to vote Labour in seats where only Miliband’s party can defeat the SNP. Where the Lib Dems are the challenger to the SNP, they could get the backing of 58 per cent of Tory supporters and 38 per cent of Labour supporters.

It’s worth remembering two things:

First, Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond are not loved by as many Scots as the headlines sometimes suggest: more than 50 per cent of voters polled by YouGov thought their country had become "dangerously divided" since the referendum - and that included 30 per cent of SNP supporters.

Second, only 45 per cent supported independence in the September 2014 referendum. However, while 45 per cent can lose you a referendum, it's enough to form the basis of a landslide in a first-past-the-post general election.

The SNP are still going to enjoy an historic day on 7 May - but this poll should encourage Team Miliband not to give up the fight in Scotland.

Nationally, two more polls are putting Labour ahead – though not quite by the margins of yesterday’s three Labour morale-boosters, one of which gave them a stunning six-point lead over the Tories.

Now Populus gives Labour a two-point lead: Con 31 (u/c), Lab 33 (u/c), Lib Dems 8 (down 2), Ukip 16 (up 1), Greens 6 (up 2).

YouGov also gives Labour a two-point lead, having had the Tories ahead by one point yesterday: Con 33 (down 2), Lab 35 (up 1), Lib Dems 8 (u/c), Ukip 12 (up 1), Greens 4 (up 1).