FA Cup betting guide 2016: who to back this year

The FA Cup third round takes place this weekend and with the Premier League turned on its head this season, the competition - the oldest football competition in the world - could be the most wide-open tournament for years.

Among the shocks in the 2015 contest were Bradford's win over Chelsea and Manchester City's exit at the hands of Middlesbrough – and with so many of the big teams misfiring this season or likely to field weakened teams, there could be more of the same this time round.

That said, the Cup is not much of a lottery these days. In the 23 seasons since the advent of the Premier League, Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool have lifted the trophy 19 times between them, while Manchester City have made the final twice in the past five years.

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Portsmouth and Wigan are the only two real shock winners since Wimbledon in 1988, which suggests that no matter how odd the Premier League table might look, one of the traditional heavyweights will walk away with the pot.

So who are the bookies backing to win this year?

ARSENAL Best odds: 7-1

The Gunners have won the FA Cup for the past two seasons and are currently sitting atop the Premier League, which bodes well for their chances of a third straight victory.

In recent years, the teams in first or second place on third-round weekend have a good record, winning the trophy every other year. But that is not the only thing to consider - after all, Chelsea and Man City were top of the tree a year ago, while Arsenal was outside the top four.

The Gunners' position could count against them as manager Arsene Wenger is likely to prioritise the League over the Cup. That, combined with their injury record, suggests a third straight win is unlikely.

CHELSEA Best odds: 7-1

Given their travails this season, the fact that the Blues are joint favourites for the trophy might sound absurd. However, it actually makes some sense.

It is too soon to know for sure, but the nature of Chelsea's win over Crystal Palace last week suggests that manager Guus Hiddink is turning things round at Stamford Bridge. The FA Cup is also their only realistic chance of silverware this season. The problem will come if they mount an assault on a top-four place. If that happens, the chance of Champions League qualification may suddenly take precedence.

But with a home tie against Scunthorpe in the third round, the Blues will be expecting a decent Cup run.

MANCHESTER CITY: Best odds: 7-1

The third-joint favourites have a tricky away tie at Premier League rivals Norwich this weekend, which adds weight to the suggestion that now is not the ideal time to back them. Much will be revealed by Manuel Pellegrini's team selection. If he opts to play the youngsters, he risks an early exit.

But with City already in the League Cup semi-finals and breathing down the neck of Arsenal and Leicester at the top of the Premier League, he might not want to commit to the FA Cup just yet. Victory over the Canaries is unlikely to affect City's odds too much so it might be best to wait before backing the Citizens.

MANCHESTER UNITED: Best odds: 8-1

It is now more than a decade since Manchester United last won the FA Cup and manager Louis van Gaal may have his sights set on a day out at Wembley this spring. A visit from League One Sheffield United should not have the Old Trafford faithful quaking in their boots; indeed, it might be a chance for the Premier League giants to play themselves into form.

Van Gaal appears to have got the players back into the groove after a horrible run and the Cup could offer a welcome diversion from the pressures of the Premier League. That said, if the manager gets the team firing properly, they may end up fighting for the Premier League title and take their eye of the FA Cup ball, but could be worth a punt.

TOTTENHAM HOTSPURS Best odds: 14-1

This could turn out to be a breakthrough season for Tottenham under Mauricio Pochettino and what better way to cap it than with a first FA Cup win since 1991? It could be a good bet: the Lilywhites are riding high in the Premier League - they go into the weekend in fourth place, six points off the lead - but might not have what it takes to mount a genuine title challenge this year.

The big problem they face is a third-round tie against Leicester. But Pochettino's side has home advantage and with their odds sure to tumble if they do go through, now could be the time to back them.

EVERTON Best odds: 18-1

It's been a curious season for the Toffees. They have been playing some exciting football and Romelu Lukaku has arguably been the Premier League's best striker so far this term. Add the talents of Ross Barkley and Gerard Deolofeu to the mix and it's a mystery why Roberto Martinez's side are languishing in 11th place in the League.

Everton have made the semi-finals of the League Cup and with a fair wind could do the same in the FA Cup. A home tie against Dagenham & Redbridge will surely not derail them, so a run looks on the cards.

LEICESTER Best odds: 40-1

You might have thought the bookies would be wary of offering long odds on Leicester after what they achieved in the first half of the season, but once again, at 40-1 for the Cup - on a par with Swansea and Crystal Palace - the Foxes look very good value. The price may be down to a tough third-round draw away at Spurs, for which striker Jamie Vardy will be missing.

But if Claudio Ranieri's men can negotiate that hurdle, then their price will surely plummet. The big question is: can the Foxes maintain their form for the rest of the season? It is a personal choice and if you believe the answer is yes, then now is the time to back them.

OUTSIDERS:

The clash between Southampton and Crystal Palace could be an intriguing one and could set one of the two sides off on an adventure that takes them to Wembley. The Saints are 25-1 for the Cup, but Palace at 50-1 could be more tempting. Another all-Premier League clash pits Watford against low-flying Newcastle. If it weren't for the exploits of Leicester and Chelsea, then Watford's amazing campaign would be the story of the season so it might be worth a flutter on the Hornets at 66-1.

POSSIBLE UPSETS:

If you don't fancy picking a winner at this early stage, which is quite understandable, how about betting on an upset? League Two Wycombe are 3-1 to beat Aston Villa, who have not won a match since they beat Birmingham in the League Cup in September. Talking of Birmingham, the Championship side is also 3-1 to beat Bournemouth and will surely be keen to remind the south-coast club that they are the "bigger" team.

League Two strugglers Newport County are a very generous 9-2 to beat the erratic Blackburn Rovers, who have not won a game in the Championship for a month. Amazingly Newport's odds are longer than those of Oxford United and they are up against Swansea of the Premier League, but the U's could be worth a punt at 3-1.

Norwich are available at 4-1 to beat Man City at Carrow Road, which is not something that can be ruled out, and if you really believe in the magic of the Cup, then maybe you should find a spare £1 and put it on Scunthorpe to win at Chelsea at 16-1.