Why Canada's new immigration plan matters for America


While most news outlets are focused on the Canadian "Freedom Convoy" and the government's response to it, another story out of Ottawa with potentially bigger long-term consequences has gone underreported. That's the announcement that Canada has increased immigration targets for the next three years to their highest level in a century. This is big news for Canada, but it should also be closely studied by the United States, which faces analogous demographic and economic challenges.
Canada's fertility rate stands at an anemic 1.4 children per woman, far below the replacement rate of 2.1 — meaning that, if not for immigration, the Canadian population would be shrinking. That would put a heavy strain on the country's welfare state, with fewer workers available over time to pay into government programs that provide benefits and social services. Canada's economy is also suffering from pandemic-related labor shortages.
In response to both trends — as well as a need to clear a backlog of immigration applications — the Canadian government has decided to increase immigration targets over the next three years to levels that exceed 1 percent of the country's population each year. (For comparison, the United States in recent years has been granting lawful permanent resident status to well under one third of 1 percent of the American population.)
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The increase in immigration to Canada will also be heavily weighted toward immigrants admitted through economic categories (56 percent in 2022 and rising to 59 percent in 2024), with the share admitted because of family connections (24-25 percent) or for humanitarian reasons (20 percent in 2022 and dropping to 16 percent in 2024) significantly smaller. The relative share of each category has remained fairly steady over the past three decades, with the bulk of arrivals filling targeted economic needs, especially for skilled workers.
American policymakers should pay close attention to these developments north of the border. The U.S. also has a plummeting fertility rate, with the country's current rate of population growth the slowest since the nation's founding. We're also suffering from labor shortages. Both trends point toward the need for immigration reform along Canadian lines, with higher levels and more economically focused targets.
Can Washington pull it off? It doesn't seem likely. While just 24 percent of Americans want immigration decreased, these restrictionists are highly motivated by the issue and form a powerful bloc within the Republican Party. That's enough to keep the GOP from going along with an immigration reform package — and margins are likely too narrow in Congress to get it done without Republican buy-in. That gives the restrictionist minority an effective legislative veto.
That's a real shame — and just the latest sign of America's political dysfunction contributing to economic and demographic decline.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Damon Linker is a senior correspondent at TheWeek.com. He is also a former contributing editor at The New Republic and the author of The Theocons and The Religious Test.
-
How military service works for K-pop idols
Under The Radar All seven members of K-pop sensation BTS have now completed mandatory national service
-
The Week contest: Flight fraud
Puzzles and Quizzes
-
Is Trump sidelining Congress' war powers?
Today's Big Question The Iran attack renews a long-running debate
-
'Alligator Alcatraz will be a blight on the Everglades'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
-
Trump judge pick told DOJ to defy courts, lawyer says
Speed Read Emil Bove, a top Justice Department official nominated by Trump for a lifetime seat, stands accused of encouraging government lawyers to mislead the courts and defy judicial orders
-
How Zohran Mamdani's NYC mayoral run will change the Democratic Party
Talking Points The candidate poses a challenge to the party's 'dinosaur wing'
-
Supreme Court clears third-country deportations
Speed Read The court allowed Trump to temporarily resume deporting migrants to countries they aren't from
-
Court allows National Guard in LA as Dodgers repel feds
Speed Read The team said they 'denied entry' to ICE agents seeking to enter their stadium
-
ICE arrests NYC comptroller at courthouse
Speed Read Brad Lander was held for about four hours before being released
-
Trump tells ICE to hit blue cities, spare farms, hotels
Speed Read Trump has targeted New York City, Chicago and Los Angeles among other cities
-
Is Trump's military parade 'just a parade'?
Talking Point Critics see an 'echo of authoritarianism'