Why didn't Western intelligence services see Isis coming?

One of Cameron's advisers remarked: 'We thought Isis was in retreat at the end of last year'…

Soldier with weapon
(Image credit: Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

There is something strange about the sudden spate of warnings about threats to airliners bound for the US from bombers trained by al-Qaeda and Isis. With this comes a strong sense of stable doors banging shut in the land of the intelligence services, well after the horses have bolted.

The lightning campaign which has seen Isis seize a huge chunk of Syria and Iraq, and declare its own Islamic state, was not anticipated by analysts in Britain and the United States. An academic adviser to David Cameron remarked privately last week: “We thought Isis was in retreat at the end of last year, and some in the region were saying they were finished.”

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is a writer on Western defence issues and Italian current affairs. He has worked for the Corriere della Sera in Milan, covered the Falklands invasion for BBC Radio, and worked as defence correspondent for The Daily Telegraph. His books include The Inner Sea: the Mediterranean and its People.