Labour leadership election polls and odds: Will debate have an effect?
15 September
Jeremy Corbyn and Owen Smith battled it out for the last time in a televised debate yesterday, with political commentators split on who came out on top.
The hustings will confirm the impression that Corbyn is the clear favourite, says The Guardian. "Smith attacked him repeatedly. By contrast, Corbyn mostly responded with serene indifference."
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However, Sky News, which hosted the debate, said Smith managed to "land a couple of blows on Corbyn over his electability and party unity" and "battled hard to win over a third of those voters still undecided".
Although the commentators have delivered their verdicts, the two leadership contenders will have to wait to see how their performances have affected their poll rankings and betting odds over the next few days.
The debate comes just a week before the ballot closes and as the party suffers the worst opinion poll ratings it has ever experienced in opposition. Labour is currently trailing the Conservatives by an average of 11 points, reports The Independent.
Nevertheless, Corbyn has dominated public polls of eligible voters ahead of the Labour leadership election, with his rival Owen Smith lagging behind. The latest YouGov/The Times poll gave Corbyn a 22-point lead among eligible voters.
However, the Daily Express claims to have seen an internal memo showing the results of member phone canvassing, which suggest Smith is just six points behind, on 40 per cent to 46 per cent. The remaining members polled were undecided and "could swing the contest to the Welsh MP", says the newspaper.
Corbyn still has the highest chance of winning if the bookmakers are to be believed. Bookies are currently offering odds of around 1/33 on the Labour leader holding onto his post, while Smith has odds of around 12/1 of beating him.
Regardless of the outcome of the vote, controversial new boundary rules mean further turmoil for the party. According to the UK Polling Report, the changes in England and Wales could result in Labour losing 28 seats.
"The last thing MPs need in this context is a process that rips up their existing mandates, scraps 50 constituencies and forces them into a brutal game of musical chairs against their colleagues for the remaining seats," says The Guardian.
Labour leadership election polls: Majority 'think media is biased against Corbyn'
5 September 2016
More than half the British public – 51 per cent – believe the media has been deliberately biased in its coverage of Jeremy Corbyn.
That percentage rises to 97 per cent among the Labour leader's supporters, according to a new YouGov poll taken ahead of the Labour leadership vote. By contrast, just 44 per cent of supporters of Owen Smith, Corbyn's rival, believe Corbyn's media coverage is biased.
A majority of Corbyn's backers also think the intelligence services have been working to undermine him – 90 per cent believe PR agencies were in some way behind the attempt earlier this summer to oust Corbyn from the leadership.
The information, taken during a recent YouGov/The Times Labour leadership election survey, shows that Corbynites are more likely to associate themselves with like-minded people than Smith supporters. For example, 40 per cent of Corbyn supporters do not believe a single friend would vote for the Conservatives, as against 19 per cent of Smith supporters and 23 per cent of Labour voters in general.
The survey also contains a warning that even if the forthcoming leadership vote produces a Corbyn victory, it may not settle the matter for long, with 56 per cent of Smith backers hoping for another leadership challenge before the general election.
The findings are similar to the conclusions of an LSE study earlier this year, notes The Independent. That analysis looked at national newspaper content over a two-month period last year, just after Corbyn's election, and found that most articles failed to properly represent his views on issues.
Labour leadership election: What the latest polls say
01 September
Jeremy Corbyn is set to beat his rival Owen Smith by more than 20 points, according to the first public poll of those entitled to vote in the Labour leadership election.
Corbyn secured 62 per cent of the vote - 24 points ahead of his rival and more than two points more than his own vote last year.
"Corbyn is on course to win the Labour leadership contest with an increased mandate thanks to overwhelming backing from the party's newest supporters," says The Times, which commissioned YouGov to carry out the survey.
The newspaper believes the results suggest the "summer coup by Labour MPs against their leader is likely to fail and that the party might split".
Of the 1,236 adults questioned, 39 per cent thought it was likely the party would divide in two after the leadership campaign had finished. A further 46 per cent thought it was unlikely and 15 per cent did not know.
Corbyn's "landslide" lead comes "despite Labour's ruling body winning a challenge against a High Court decision allowing new party members to vote in the contest", says The Independent.
This was expected to have damaged Corbyn's campaign, adds the newspaper, but the latest poll shows him "winning regardless of apparent attempts to exclude supporters through both legal and rulebook means".
Bookmakers are currently offering odds of around 1/10 on Corbyn, while Smith has odds of around 6/1.
"If the numbers are broken down by length of membership, Owen Smith actually leads among those who were members before the last general election, but they are swamped by the influx of newer members who overwhelmingly back Jeremy Corbyn," says YouGov's Anthony Wells.
However, even if Corbyn wins, opinion polls for the next general election offer little hope of Labour getting into power.
Out of 116 voter intention surveys carried out since the May 2015 general election, just three put Labour in front. They were carried out by YouGov for The Times in March and April and gave the party a lead of between just one and three points.
The Conservatives' lead has lengthened since then, with the latest ICM/Guardian survey putting them 14 points ahead of Corbyn's divided MPs. Labour is more likely to win votes in Wales and London than the government, but the rest of the country is turning away.
Similarly, Corbyn's approval ratings are far below those of Prime Minister Theresa May, although pollsters say she is currently enjoying a "honeymoon period".
Labour leadership election polls and odds: MPs snub Corbyn
26 August
In a survey of 101 MPs, just one named Jeremy Corbyn the most impressive parliamentarian of 2016 - and that was a member of the Conservative Party.
None of the surveyed Labour MPs chose their leader in the Ipsos Mori poll. Instead, a third opted for Prime Minister Theresa May, while others went for David Cameron, Hilary Benn and Alex Salmond. Three chose Owen Smith, Corbyn's rival in the Labour leadership race.
Overall, May and Cameron won over the most MPs, followed by fellow Conservative Jacob Rees-Mogg, the SNP's Angus Robertson and former Conservative leadership rival Michael Gove.
Ben Page, the chief executive of Ipsos Mori, said: "The latest results from our annual survey of MPs are frankly unprecedented. Never before has a party leader received such low ratings from fellow MPs, but it is not surprising given the difficulties Jeremy Corbyn has had with the Parliamentary Labour Party."
Despite struggling to win over his party's MPs, Corbyn "seems set to be re-elected as Labour leader when the result of the party's leadership contest is announced on 24 September", says The Independent.
In the last three leadership polls, Corbyn has had a lead of up to 50 per cent among current Labour voters. However, it is Smith who is winning over the rest of the general public, potentially signalling a problem for Labour's next general election if the present leader stay.
Bookmakers are currently offering odds of 1/8 on Corbyn staying put, while Smith has a 5/1 chance of winning.
Labour leadership election polls and odds: Is Smith in with a chance?
25 August
Bookmakers and pollsters have predicted a win for Jeremy Corbyn in the Labour leadership election, but new analysis of voters suggests it will be a much tighter race than previously predicted.
Saving Labour, an anti-Corbyn campaign group, claims the election will come down to just a few thousand votes.
It predicts around 62 per cent of the registered supporters who paid £25 for a vote last month will back the Labour leader's rival, Owen Smith.
It also believes he has the support of 60 per cent of members who joined before the 2015 general election.
However, Corbyn is said to have the backing of two-thirds of the 150,000 people who joined the party between May 2015 and January 2016.
Nevertheless, Saving Labour says Smith has a slim majority of trade union-affiliated members – and ultimately could edge the race by around 4,000 votes.
"The analysis will come as a surprise to many, who have seen Mr Corbyn attract huge crowds across the country in recent weeks," says the Daily Mirror.
The study was said to include analysis of the Saving Labour's own mailing list and information about where certain members and supporters live and what they do.
"Saving Labour's numbers are plausible - but they feel unlikely," says Stephen Bush at the New Statesman. He points out Smith would need "big wins among trade unionists and registered supporters, both of which went for Corbyn by large margins last time".
However, he concedes that if "last year’s £3ers were drawn from 'Old Labour in exile', it is possible this year's £25ers are 'New Labour in exile'".
Labour leadership contest enters crucial week: Polls and odds
22 August
Ballot papers have been sent out to thousands of Labour members and supporters today as the leadership contest enters a crucial phase and divisions continue to deepen.
The deadline for voters to choose between current leader Jeremy Corbyn and former work and pensions secretary Owen Smith is 21 September, with the winner announced three days later.
In recent days, a number of senior Labour politicians – including Scottish Labour Party leader Kezia Dugdale and London Mayor Sadiq Kahn – have come out in support of Smith, arguing that a party led by Corbyn would have no chance of winning the next general election.
Most commentators – and bookies – predict Corbyn will be announced the winner at a special conference in Liverpool next month. "Few believe Corbyn's soft-left challenger will prevail," says the New Statesmen.
But while that may please the Islington MP's many supporters, some are concerned about the future of party if he continues as leader.
"If Corbyn wins, I think we face meltdown," said Ilford South MP Mike Gapes. "I can't see any circumstances in which he can win a general election."
The "overarching question" remains how Corbyn moves forward with a parliamentary party that has no confidence in him, says the New Statesman. His allies insist he would take a conciliatory approach and listen to MPs' concerns and attempt to find mutual ground.
Whoever wins, the Labour party can celebrate a momentous surge in membership, at a time when the number of Tory supporters is shrivelling.
The latest poll, from BMG for the London Evening Standard, gives Smith a 24-point lead when the public were asked which of the two men would make the best prime minister.
However, when they asked those who voted Labour last year and intended to do so again, Corbyn led by two points.
Several bookmakers are offering odds as short as 1/8 on Corbyn remaining as leader, while Smith comes in at around 9/2.
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