Resignations plunge Labour back into turmoil

Labour leadership election polls and odds: Who's in the lead?

18 August

The general public would rather see Owen Smith in charge of Labour, but the party's supporters still look likely to vote for Jeremy Corbyn to remain, according to the latest poll.

A BMG survey for the London Evening Standard gives the Pontypridd MP challenger a 24-point lead over the current leader when the public were asked which of the two men would make the best prime minister.

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However, when they asked those who voted Labour in 2015 and intended to do so again, Corbyn led by two points.

Dr Michael Turner, a research director at BMG Research, said: "Interestingly, the poll suggests that, of those who had voted Labour in 2015 but since withdrawn or moved their support elsewhere, a clear majority think Owen Smith has the qualities to make both a better leader and a better prime minister."

Among that group, 75 per cent backed Smith and 25 per cent backed Corbyn.

Several bookmakers are offering odds as short as 1/8 on Corbyn remaining as leader, while Smith comes in at around 5/1.

Meanwhile, a separate poll from Ipsos Mori says Conservative leader Theresa May is still enjoying a "warm honeymoon welcome", with 54 per cent of the public satisfied and 19 per cent dissatisfied with her performance as prime minister so far.

In contrast, only 25 per cent say they are satisfied with Corbyn's performance as Labour leader and 58 per cent are unsatisfied.

Labour leadership election polls and odds: Could Smith win?

16 August

The latest Labour leadership poll gives Jeremy Corbyn a 22-point lead over his rival Owen Smith among Labour voters, but his chances of winning a next general election look less hopeful.

The ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror shows that 47 per cent of people intending to vote for Labour thought Corbyn made the better leader, while 25 per cent opted for Smith.

However, among the general public only 23 per cent chose Corbyn, while 37 per cent chose Smith.

Meanwhile, several bookmakers are offering odds as short as 1/8 on Corbyn remaining as leader, while Smith has odds of around 6/1.

When it comes to general election voting intentions, Labour has trailed behind the Tories by up to 14 points this month.

YouGov's research director Anthony J Wells says this is "probably not a fair yardstick" as Theresa May is currently enjoying a "honeymoon" period.

However, he points out that "at no point this year have the polls ever shown a consistent Labour lead". Taking all of the polls into account, the average gives the Tories a three point lead, which are "not the polling figures of a party on course to win the next general election, but neither do they point to imminent extinction", says Wells.

"Labour's polling on underlying questions like leadership and the economy should be far more worrying for them," he adds, as "their ratings there are terrible".

Labour leadership election odds and polls: Corbyn v Smith

12 August

Jeremy Corbyn and Owen Smith went head-to-head for the second hustings of the Labour leadership contest last night.

It was Corbyn who generated the more impassioned support at the event in Gateshead, says the Daily Telegraph. "Mr Smith got patches of clapping. Mr Corbyn, by contrast, got whoops, whistles and delirious cheers," it reports.

The audience was asked not to be "disrespectful" by the moderator after Smith was repeatedly booed in the first hustings last week, but there was still an "odd burst of outraged jeering", adds the paper.

The former shadow works and pensions secretary accused the Labour chief of showing insufficient leadership ahead of the EU referendum, while Corbyn said it was time to focus on a strategy for the future, one that "builds a partnership with our sister parties and unions all across Europe".

Smith also said he would like to have Corbyn in his shadow cabinet should he become Labour leader, but that he would not serve under his rival if he lost. "I've lost confidence in you. I will serve Labour on the backbenches. I am Labour to my bones," he said.

The latest BMG Research poll of those who said they would vote Labour in the next general election gave Corbyn a solid 50-point lead in the leadership election and he remains the favourite to win among the bookies, some of whom are offering odds as short as 1/12 on him. Smith trails behind at 7/1.

However, when it comes to how well Corbyn would fare in a general election, a new poll by TNS gives the Conservatives a 13-point lead over the MP's party.

The survey also showed that 44 per cent of people think Prime Minister Theresa May is a better leader, while just 16 per cent supported Corbyn.

Luke Taylor, TNS's head of social and political attitudes, said: "Time will tell if these poll ratings are a honeymoon effect for a new prime minister or a lead in the polls that can be sustained through to the next general election.

"This poll will be alarming for a Labour party in the middle of their second leadership election in 12 months. Whoever emerges as their new leader will want to act quickly to make inroads into this Conservative poll lead and address concerns about the party's future."

However, a separate poll from YouGov shows Labour closing the gap to seven points, with the site saying "bounce" the Tories gained from having a new leader "may now be coming to an end".

Labour leadership election odds and polls: Can Corbyn win?

10 August

Labour's civil war deepened yesterday as a bitter row erupted between Jeremy Corbyn and his deputy, Tom Watson.

In an interview with The Guardian, Watson said the party was at risk of being taken over by hard-left "Trotsky entryists", who were "twisting the arms" of young members to support Corbyn.

"They are caucusing and factionalising and putting pressure where they can and that's how Trotsky entryists operate," he said.

He added he was "under no illusions" that many members of the Momentum movement, set up to support Corbyn's leadership, were being manipulated by older left-wing agitators "who certainly don't have the best interests of the party at heart" and saw Labour as a "vehicle for revolutionary socialism", not winning elections.

Corbyn's leadership campaign accused the party deputy of "peddling baseless conspiracy theories", saying that "rather than patronising members he should be working to unite the party", reports the Guardian.

The team also criticised senior members of the party for trying to stop 130,000 new members having a vote on the leadership.

Watson also said he has little direct contact or communication with Corbyn, bar the "odd text". The Daily Telegraph says it is becoming "increasingly hard to see how they can work together if Corbyn wins re-election as expected on 24 September, even though both men will have their own mandate from members".

Six members of Momentum won a clean sweep in elections to the party's ruling National Executive Committee on Monday, giving Corbyn supporters a clear majority on the body.

What do the polls say?

The most recent Labour leadership poll of British residents, carried out by BMG Research for the London Evening Standard, put Corbyn 14 points behind his rival Owen Smith. However, among those who said they would vote Labour in the next election, Corbyn was a solid 50 points ahead.

Labour's chance of winning a general election under Corbyn's leadership does not look so strong. The latest voting intention figures from YouGov show the Conservatives on 42 per cent, with Labour trailing behind on 28 per cent.

What are Corbyn's odds?

Some bookmakers are offering odds as short as 1/20 on Corbyn remaining as leader, while Smith has odds of around 8/1.