Will an NHS ‘crisis’ trigger new Covid-19 restrictions?

More than half a dozen NHS trusts have reportedly issued alerts over “internal critical incidents” as Covid-19 outbreaks trigger widespread staff shortages.

According to The Guardian, health leaders are warning that multiple parts of the NHS are “in a state of crisis” as the “rapidly increasing” number of absent staff piles “very serious” pressure on hospitals already struggling to deliver critical care.

Boris Johnson told reporters yesterday that the health service will face “considerable” strain over “the next couple of weeks, and maybe more”. Ministers will “​​keep everything under review” as the Omicron variant of Covid continues “to surge through the country”, he added.

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‘Internal critical incidents’

Latest government data shows that Covid infections in the UK rose by 50% in the week up to 3 January, with a total of 157,758 new cases confirmed in England and Scotland on Monday alone.

Health leaders have warned that the “rapidly increasing” number of infected NHS staff off work has left hospitals struggling to cope with increased admissions, as well as putting “huge wider pressure” on urgent and emergency services, The Guardian reported.

The mounting demand for services is “increasingly spreading to hospitals outside London, with those in the northeast and Yorkshire reporting the most rapid growth in Covid patient numbers in recent days”, the paper said.

However, the prime minister has ruled out new Covid restrictions “for now”. “The way forward for the country as a whole is to continue with the path that we’re on,” Johnson told reporters during a visit to a vaccination centre in Buckinghamshire on Monday.

“We’ll keep everything under review. But the mixture of things that we’re doing at the moment is, I think, the right one.”

The PM added that although Omicron “does seem pretty conclusively to be less severe”, it would be “absolute folly to say that this thing is all over now. We’ve got to remain cautious, we’ve got to stick to Plan B.”

Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, the membership organisation for health trusts in England, told Sky News last week that the NHS was already “beyond full stretch”.

The knock-on effects of families and friends coming together over Christmas could leave the health service under “extreme pressure”, he said. Should hospital admissions reach a level where it “is not going to be able to treat the people who need to be treated then obviously the issue of further restrictions will need to come back on the agenda”, Hopson added.

Stick or twist?

In an article for the Daily Mail to mark the end of 2021, Health Secretary Sajid Javid wrote that “curbs on our freedom must be an absolute last resort and the British people rightly expect us to do everything in our power to avert them”.

Javid added that he was “acutely conscious of the enormous health, social and economic costs of lockdowns” and remained “determined” to “give ourselves the best chance of living alongside the virus and avoiding strict measures in the future”.

The health secretary is due to make a statement on Covid restrictions in the House of Commons tomorrow.

According to Politico London Playbook’s Alex Wickham, “early indications from English hospitals this week have led senior ministers to be cautiously optimistic that the NHS will avoid being fully overwhelmed”, although “it’s important to stress the caveats that admissions are not expected to truly surge until the end of the week or later”.

Johnson is meeting ministers today to discuss the state of play, with “non-hospital problems” including “schools and the economy” also likely to be on the agenda, said Wickham.

The Daily Mail splash this morning reported that a million Covid-infected Britons are “stuck in self-isolation”, amid mounting concerns that children returning to school this week could be “turned away at the gates” owing to the number of absent teachers.

“Employees returning to the office have also been warned of last-minute rail cancellations,” the paper added, as “rubbish bins and recycling containers across the country overflow due to suspended collections”.

The Times’ science editor Tom Whipple questioned whether “Johnson’s gamble on avoiding Covid restrictions” has “backfired”, adding that “you have to hunt a bit to find the hopeful data”.

“Nationally, things are pretty grim,” Whipple continued, with “with no sign of hospital admissions slowing down”. However, “if you look at the rate of change of Covid beds, things are seemingly more positive. Whereas before new year the number of Covid patients in hospital in London was growing by 5% a day, for the past two days it has been 1 to 2%”.

And “better still”, he added, “the number of patients in intensive care appears unchanged – an indication, albeit a very early one, that those ending up in hospital are less sick this time round”.

For now, said The Guardian, “ministers are expected to keep restrictions as they are”, with “rules on areas such as mask use, Covid passports and home working” likely to remain unchanged.

And when – or if – those restrictions will be lifted or ramped up may ultimately come down to the “political dynamic” within Johnson’s party, Politico’s Wickham added.