World Cup round of 16: Argentina vs. Australia prediction, preview and team news

Australia fans have been in party mode during the Fifa World Cup. The 1-0 win over Denmark saw the Socceroos finish second in group D behind holders France and the result sparked wild celebrations Down Under.

When Mathew Leckie’s winner hit the net against the Danes, at around 3.30am Australian time, the goal sent thousands of supporters in Melbourne’s Federation Square into “absolute raptures”, said the Daily Mail. Flares were set alight and fans “bounced around” to celebrate the strike in “scenes of sheer pandemonium”.

The fans may be celebrating, but after the win over Tunisia in the second group game, Australia head coach Graham Arnold “got the players in a circle and told them they’d achieved nothing”, said Oliver Murray on news.com.au. Arnold was “intent on not letting his players get complacent” and “unsurprisingly” the message was exactly the same after Denmark.

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Both nations have criticised Fifa’s World Cup scheduling of Saturday’s last-16 clash, with “team news expected to be affected”, said Alex Young in the London Evening Standard. Argentina take the field for the knockout game less than 48 hours after beating Poland, while the Socceroos have had a “few short hours more rest”. “How can the Fifa organisation [do this] at such a high-prestige tournament,” said Australia assistant coach Rene Meulensteen. “We’ve got almost no time to let it all sink in. It’s recovery, recovery and getting their brains ready again for that challenge.”

‘Anyone can beat anyone’

Now in the World Cup round of 16 for only the second time in their history, the Socceroos will face Argentina and their superstar captain, Lionel Messi. La Albiceleste were stunned in their opening group C match against Saudi Arabia, but 2-0 victories over Mexico and Poland saw them qualify as group winners.

If Messi’s dream of winning the World Cup is to be kept alive, then Argentina must avoid a huge upset against Australia, said Andrew Cawthorne on Reuters. Messi and Co will be “hot favourites” on Saturday, but they more than anyone have learned “not to underestimate an underdog”, especially after suffering one of the biggest shocks in World Cup history against the Saudis.

Argentina boss Lionel Scaloni is certainly not underestimating the Socceroos. He doesn’t even think his side are the favourites for the clash at the Ahmed bin Ali Stadium. “All the games are hard,” he said. “Anyone who thinks the match against Australia will be easy is wrong. We’re not favourites.”

Messi agreed with Scaloni’s comments as he knows that “anyone can beat anyone” and everything is very even. “We have to prepare the game in the best way as we always do,” he said. “We must be calm and go game by game. Now another World Cup begins”.

Match facts

• Who: Argentina vs. Australia
• What: Fifa World Cup round of 16
• When: Saturday 3 December 2022
• Where: Ahmed bin Ali Stadium
• Kick-off time: 7pm (all times GMT)
• UK TV coverage: live on BBC One and iPlayer

Team news

Both sides are set to have “fully fit squads to choose from” on Saturday, said Nick Emms in The Sun. However, with such a “short turnaround” to games, the managers could opt to “make several changes ahead of the clash”.

The fitness focus for Argentina has revolved around Lionel Messi, said Grey Whitebloom on 90min.com. There were reports during the group stage that Messi had been “training on his own”. However, Scaloni and his captain “have been quick to dispel any doubts” lingering over the forward’s fitness. Angel Di Maria should also be “fine”, said Scaloni. The winger was taken off against Poland as a precaution after feeling discomfort in his quadriceps.

For Australia, there are currently “no fresh injury concerns”, said Young in the Evening Standard. Right-back Nathaniel Atkinson is “still hoping to be fit”, but Milos Degenek “impressed” against Denmark so “should keep his place”.

Possible starting XIs

• Argentina: E. Martinez; Molina, Otamendi, Romero, Tagliafico; Mac Allister, Fernandez, De Paul; Alvarez, Messi, Di Maria
• Australia: Ryan; Karacic, Souttar, Rowles, Behich; Mooy; Leckie, Irvine, McGree, Goodwin; Duke

Predictions

The Aussies have done “brilliantly” and “I don’t want to patronise”, but “them getting to this stage is like England winning the World Cup final”, said Chris Sutton on the BBC. Sutton doesn’t think they have got “any hope of going further at this tournament” and also “doesn’t think they will be partying much” when Argentina “have finished with them”. Prediction: Argentina 5 Australia 0.

This World Cup has been a “breeding ground of shocks”, said Whitebloom on 90min.com. But there is “little doubt” that the Socceroos will need “a dollop of good fortune” to overcome an Argentinian outfit “tentatively rediscovering the slick edge” which has defined their commanding form in the last three years. Prediction: Argentina 2 Australia 1.

Having avoided facing reigning champions France by topping group C, Argentina will be “determined to take advantage” of their “re-found form and fluency” to reach the quarter-finals, said Jonathan O’Shea on SportsMole. While a “plucky” Australia side can “keep them at bay for certain spells”, if the Albiceleste demonstrate their undoubted quality in the final third “there should surely be only one winner”. Prediction: Argentina 2 Australia 0.

Our match prediction model gives Graham Arnold’s men just a “5% chance of causing an upset” with Argentina rated an “81.8% chance” of making it to the quarter-finals, said Jon Fisher on Opta Analyst. The chance of the game going to extra-time, with a draw at 90 minutes is rated at just 13.2%.

The stadium

Inspired by the sand dunes, you’ll find Ahmad Bin Ali Stadium on the edge of the desert in Al Rayyan, 12.4 miles west of Doha. The 40,000-capacity venue hosted six games in the group stage and this round of 16 tie.

Squads

Argentina

• Head coach: Lionel Scaloni
• Key player: Lionel Messi
• One to watch: Julian Alvarez
• Goalkeepers: Emiliano Martinez (Aston Villa), Franco Armani (River Plate) and Geronimo Rulli (Villarreal)
• Defenders: Gonzalo Montiel (Sevilla), Nahuel Molina (Atletico Madrid), German Pezzella (Real Betis), Cristian Romero (Tottenham Hotspur), Nicolas Otamendi (Benfica), Lisandro Martinez (Manchester United), Juan Foyth (Villarreal), Nicolas Tagliafico (Olympique Lyonnais), Marcos Acuna (Sevilla)
• Midfielders: Leandro Paredes (Juventus), Guido Rodriguez (Real Betis), Enzo Fernandez (Benfica), Rodrigo De Paul (Atletico Madrid), Exequiel Palacios (Bayer Leverkusen), Alejandro Gomez (Sevilla), Alexis Mac Allister (Brighton & Hove Albion)
• Forwards: Paulo Dybala (AS Roma), Lionel Messi (Paris Saint-Germain), Angel Di Maria (Juventus), Nicolas Gonzalez (Fiorentina), Joaquin Correa (Inter Milan), Lautaro Martinez (Inter Milan), Julian Alvarez (Manchester City)

Australia

• Head coach: Graham Arnold
• Star man: Ajdin Hrustic
• One to watch: Garang Kuol
• Goalkeepers: Mathew Ryan (FC Copenhagen), Andrew Redmayne (Sydney FC), Danny Vukovic (Central Coast Mariners)
• Defenders: Aziz Behich (Dundee United), Milos Degenek (Columbus Crew), Thomas Deng (Aibirex Niigata), Joel King (Odense Boldklub), Nathaniel Atkinson (Hearts), Fran Karacic (Brescia), Harry Souttar (Stoke City), Kye Rowles (Hearts), Craig Goodwin (Adelaide United)
• Midfielders: Aaron Mooy (Celtic), Jackson Irvine (St Pauli), Ajdin Hrustic (Hellas Verona), Bailey Wright (Sunderland), Cameron Devlin (Hearts), Riley McGree (Middlesbrough), Keanu Baccus (St Mirren)
• Forwards: Awer Mabil (Cadiz), Mathew Leckie (Melbourne City), James Maclaren (Melbourne City), Jason Cummings (Central Coast Mariners), Mitchell Duke (Fagiano Okayama), Garang Kuol (Central Coast Mariners)