World Cup 2026: uncertainty reigns with one year to go

The one-year countdown to the Fifa World Cup 26 begins today and the biggest men's football tournament on the planet is already beset with controversy.

The 23rd World Cup will be co-hosted by the US, Mexico and Canada, with America taking the lion's share of the venues. But Donald Trump's recent travel ban on citizens of 12 countries, as well as his attacks on the two co-hosts and the intensifying immigration raids, have created immense uncertainty about safety and logistics. And with Fifa boss Gianni Infantino, an attendee at Trump's inauguration, announcing an expanded format and an unprecedented half-time musical show during the final, it's being dubbed the "Maga World Cup".

'The Donald Trump World Cup'

The US administration's new travel policy does make exceptions for "any athlete or member of an athletic team, including coaches, persons performing a necessary support role, and immediate relatives, travelling for the World Cup, Olympics, or other major sporting event". But there are no exceptions for travelling fans from the "banned" countries. And, for other fans, there are widespread concerns about long wait times for foreign visitor visas, the impact of the administration's swingeing cuts to federal departments, and crumbling public transport in host cities.

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It's clear that Infantino has "fully draped the tournament around one of his favourite strongmen", said Leander Schaerlaeckens, a lecturer in sports media, in The Guardian. The 2026 World Cup will be "leveraged for the glorification of a leader to a degree not seen since Benito Mussolini dominated the 1934 World Cup in Italy". This tournament will "be remembered as The Donald Trump World Cup (trademark pending)".

England and Wales are halfway through their qualifiers while Scotland and Northern Ireland are yet to start, so it remains to be seen which home nations will make it to the World Cup. But yesterday, in a friendly match, England were beaten 3-1 by Senegal: their first loss to an African team in 22 matches. New coach Thomas Tuchel "felt the full fury" of supporters after the "embarrassing defeat" said the BBC's chief football writer Phil McNulty. England, quarter-finalists in the 2022 World Cup, were "abysmal" and, if that performance is an "realistic indicator" of their hopes next summer, Tuchel will "need to conjure up a miracle".

'Logistical headaches', 'meaningless games'

All the teams who qualify will already face one difficulty in the US, said The Independent's chief football writer Miguel Delaney. The "absurd" size of the tournament, taking place across three geographical zones (west, central and eastern), means "logistical headaches" for teams looking for a base with training facilities.

And the tournament format could be an even bigger headache. There will be 48 teams playing, split into 12 groups of four. The first 17 days of the almost six-week tournament will just be matches in those 12 groups; only after that will the 48 teams be narrowed to 32, so "70% of the tournament will be spent eliminating a third of the field". There is "a genuine danger everyone will be fatigued by the quarter-finals."

Every World Cup expansion since the 1930s has come under similar criticism, and there are certainly advantages for the smaller countries who manage to qualify. But all the extra matches mirror the wider problem of "congestion" in the modern football calendar, and the rise of "so many meaningless games, or competitive games where everyone is shattered".

Some senior industry figures are "openly comparing" Fifa to Disney, which flooded the market with more and more films from franchises like Marvel and Star Wars: successful at first but ultimately diluting the content – and the profits. "Somehow," one senior football source told the paper, "Infantino has made football's premium tournament worse. It's going to be an absolute mess."