What is Russia plotting in Moldova?
Ahead of two crucial polls, Kremlin 'using all available means of leverage and interference to impose its will – short of bombing the country'

Moldova is braced for an escalation of Russian disinformation and destabilisation attempts ahead of a crucial presidential election and referendum on future membership of the EU.
Since the Ukraine invasion, concern has grown that Vladimir Putin would turn his attention to neighbouring Moldova in a bid to regain control of another former Soviet republic.
Although Moldova does not share a border with Russia, its separatist region of Transnistria has become the rallying cry used by Moscow to undermine the tiny country. In February, pro-Russian separatist leaders issued an appeal to Putin for "protection" that "echoed similar 'appeals' from inside Ukraine which set in motion the illegal Russian annexations of its territories", said Chatham House experts.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
What is Russia plotting?
For more than two years, Moldova has been "walking a fine line", said the Kyiv Independent. On one hand, the government in the capital Chisinau "supported Ukraine and tailed Kyiv's move toward the EU. On the other hand, Moldova did little to provoke Russia, holding enormous sway over the country".
With two crucial votes coming in the autumn, "the country is awaiting Russian-led political turmoil".
Earlier this year, a move by the "all-deputies congress" in Tiraspol, Transnistria's capital, where pro-Russian separatists called on Moscow to stop the "pressures" coming from Chisinau, was dismissed by the Moldovan government as a "Russian psyops".
"What we've seen in Transnistria was a show put on so that the Kremlin has a reason to disrupt the situation in Moldova," lawmaker Oazu Nantoi of the pro-European ruling party PAS told the paper. "We will see the meaning of this show later on."
The small eastern European country has a population of just three million and average monthly salary of less than $1,000, yet it has become "ground zero in the battle between disinformation, much of it fuelled by AI, and elections", said Politico.
While other democracies fear foreign governments meddling in their affairs, for Moldova such interference has become an "everyday reality". Some, like national security adviser Stanislav Secrieru, fear that the ongoing interference efforts from Moscow may "lay the groundwork among locals for a possible Russian invasion, at some point".
Russia still maintains around 1,500 troops in Transnistria, but for now has chosen to wage "hybrid warfare" in Moldova, "whereby the Kremlin is using all available means of leverage and interference to impose its will – short of bombing the country", said Josh Rogin for The Washington Post. Moscow has "tried to orchestrate a coup, trained fake anti-government protesters, flooded the country with disinformation and funnelled illicit cash to pro-Russian opposition parties".
Could crucial votes decide Moldova's fate?
"Threatening Moldova's security, squeezing its economy and undermining its democracy" are efforts that are "all aimed at replacing its pro-Western leadership with a new government bought and paid for by the Kremlin", said Rogin.
The crisis in Transnistria is expected to influence the upcoming presidential elections in October, when pro-European incumbent President Maia Sandu is set to see a run-off with one of the pro-Russian candidates. Towards the end of the year, voters are also set to pass judgement on whether they would like to join the EU in the future, after the bloc opened accession negotiations in December 2023.
"Both are opportunities for Moscow to strengthen its influence over the country and to subvert Moldova's possible integration into the EU," said Chatham House.
The head of Moldova's Information and Security Service said that in 2023 alone, Russia illegally channelled more than $55 million, or almost 0.4% of Moldova's nominal GDP, into influencing elections and buying votes in the country. This activity is expected to be turbocharged for elections this year, with the next few months a "critical test for Moldova's internal resilience to Russian aggressive encroachment", said the think tank.
Around 60% of Moldovans now support such closer ties with the West. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has made Moldova – and the Harvard-educated Sandu – "the poster children for the bloc’s march East", said Politico, a move that "hasn't gone unnoticed by the Kremlin and its local allies".
While EU accession would be difficult, it would be welcomed, as "salvation can only come in the form of European integration and genuine strategic autonomy", said Euronews's Claudiu Degeratu last year. "The defence strategy of the Republic of Moldova and its armed forces have become the most critical priorities," he added. "Moldova needs modern defence capabilities, assistance programmes and defence resources", with which it "could be one of the European success stories".
But while Moldova tries to build ties with the West, it knows that its survival as a democracy is effectively tied to that of Ukraine.
“It's not an issue of whether Russia wants to invade, it’s only an issue of if they can," Moldova's new Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi told The Washington Post. "God forbid, if the Russians would feel emboldened, clearly Moldova would be next. And after that, it's anybody’s guess."
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Elliott Goat is a freelance writer at The Week Digital. A winner of The Independent's Wyn Harness Award, he has been a journalist for over a decade with a focus on human rights, disinformation and elections. He is co-founder and director of Brussels-based investigative NGO Unhack Democracy, which works to support electoral integrity across Europe. A Winston Churchill Memorial Trust Fellow focusing on unions and the Future of Work, Elliott is a founding member of the RSA's Good Work Guild and a contributor to the International State Crime Initiative, an interdisciplinary forum for research, reportage and training on state violence and corruption.
-
Gaza is running out of cash
Under The Radar Palestinians pay the price as black market springs up around banknotes and coins
By Elizabeth Carr-Ellis, The Week UK Published
-
Law firms: Caving to White House pressure
Feature Trump targets major law firms tied to his past investigations
By The Week US Published
-
Venezuelan deportees: Locked up for tattoos?
Feature A former pro soccer player was deported after U.S. authorities claimed his tattoo proved he belonged to a Venezuelan gang
By The Week US Published
-
Is the 'coalition of the willing' going to work?
Today's Big Question PM's proposal for UK/French-led peacekeeping force in Ukraine provokes 'hostility' in Moscow and 'derision' in Washington
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Can Ukraine make peace with Trump in Saudi Arabia?
Talking Point Zelenskyy and his team must somehow navigate the gap between US president's 'demands and threats'
By The Week UK Published
-
Ukraine: where do Trump's loyalties really lie?
Today's Big Question 'Extraordinary pivot' by US president – driven by personal, ideological and strategic factors – has 'upended decades of hawkish foreign policy toward Russia'
By Elliott Goat, The Week UK Published
-
Is Europe's defence too reliant on the US?
Today's Big Question As the UK and EU plan to 're-arm', how easy will it be to disentangle from US equipment and support?
By Elliott Goat, The Week UK Published
-
Is the British Army ready to deploy to Ukraine?
Today's Big Question The UK 'would be expected to play a major role' if a peacekeeping force is sent to enforce ceasefire with Russia
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
What will Trump-Putin Ukraine peace deal look like?
Today's Big Question US president 'blindsides' European and UK leaders, indicating Ukraine must concede seized territory and forget about Nato membership
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Ukraine's disappearing army
Under the Radar Every day unwilling conscripts and disillusioned veterans are fleeing the front
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
Cuba's mercenaries fighting against Ukraine
The Explainer Young men lured by high salaries and Russian citizenship to enlist for a year are now trapped on front lines of war indefinitely
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published