Vladimir Putin may use a military parade scheduled to take place on 9 May to formally declare war on Ukraine, according to US and Western officials.
Such an announcement “would enable the full mobilisation of Russia’s reserve forces as invasion efforts continue to falter”, CNN reported. And it could be timed to coincide with Victory Day, an event commemorating the country’s defeat of the Nazis in 1945.
UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace last week became the first Western politician to formally state that the day could be marked by an official designation of war, telling LBC that Putin will use the symbolic date “to move from his ‘special operation’”.
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“He’s been rolling the pitch, laying the ground for being able to say ‘look, this is now a war against Nazis, and what I need is more people. I need more Russian cannon fodder,’” Wallace said. “He is probably going to declare on this May Day that ‘we are now at war with the world’s Nazis and we need to mass mobilise the Russian people.’”
Victory from defeat
According to the i news site, Moscow’s shift to consolidating control over Donbas in the east of Ukraine is linked to Putin’s desire “to tout some tangible military victories” ahead of Victory Day, the “most significant date in the nation’s political-military calendar”.
Marking “the Soviet Union’s triumph over Germany in the Second World War”, the holiday is marked with displays of Russian strength, including “a large military pageant parade through Moscow’s Red Square”.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov this week told Italian broadcaster Mediaset that the Russian military “will not artificially adjust their actions to any date, including Victory Day”, adding: “The pace of the operation in Ukraine depends, first of all, on the need to minimise any risks for the civilian population and Russian military personnel.
“We will solemnly celebrate May 9, as we always do,” he said. “Remember those who fell for the liberation of Russia and other republics of the former USSR, for the liberation of Europe from the Nazi plague.”
But despite Lavrov’s efforts to play down the impact of the ongoing conflict on Victory Day plans, the West should expect to see Putin “rattle some sabres” in the run-up to the military parade, said Forbes’ national security contributor Craig Hooper.
“Ukraine was meant to be a showcase for Russia’s advanced weaponry and authoritarian government,” he said. “But Ukraine has demonstrated that both are hollow.” Moscow’s forces “failed” to seize control over meaningful expanses of territory, while Putin’s “over-reach” has “strengthened global appreciation for ‘rules-based’ order”.
There is nothing left for Putin but an appeal to “nationalism and Russian nihilism”, he added, suggesting that the events of 9 May will likely be modelled on “Stalin’s playbook” of appealing to the “Motherland” while blaming Russian isolation on the “West”.
Propaganda potential
In an effort to highlight some success in Ukraine, the Kremlin could order hundreds of Ukrainian prisoners of war to be put on display during a parade in Red Square, a think tank has warned.
The Centre for Defence Strategies, which is based in Ukraine, said that 500 captured fighters could be “forced to go through Red Square for cameras”.
British fighters currently being held by Russia include Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner. Both were “taken prisoner in the besieged city of Mariupol” and “have since been paraded on Russian state television”, The Times reported.
Andrew Hill, another Brit, “is believed to have been detained by Russia after a video emerged showing a man being questioned on Russian television”, the paper added.
With less than a week to go until 9 May, Moscow could also “look at places other than Donbas to make a statement”, CNN reported.
Admission of failure
Options to mark the event may include “annexing the breakaway territories of Luhansk and Donetsk”, a “push for Odessa in the south”, or declaring “control over the southern port city of Mariupol”.
State Department spokesperson Ned Price said this week that the US has “good reason to believe that the Russians will do everything they can to use” the event for propaganda purposes, adding that Moscow has “doubled down” on propaganda “as a means to distract from their tactical and strategic failures on the battlefield”.
He continued that it “would be a great irony” if Moscow used the occasion “to declare war”, suggesting that this “would allow them to surge conscripts in a way they’re not able to do now, in a way that would be tantamount to revealing to the world that their war effort is failing, that they are floundering in their military campaign”.
That the campaign is Ukraine is struggling could also reveal itself through the parade. The Telegraph reported that “fewer soldiers and armoured vehicles will partake” in the event as the “war in Ukraine has weakened the Russian military so dramatically”.
“There will be around 130 military vehicles taking part in the parade,” the paper said, citing Russian Ministry of Defence documents, “compared with 191 last year.” Meanwhile, “around 10,000 personnel will take part, compared with 12,000 last year”.
