What a 51-49 Democrat Senate majority means for Washington

The victory of incumbent Georgia senator Raphael Warnock in a midterms run-off election has secured a 51-seat majority for the Democrats in the chamber.

Warnock’s win over Republican challenger Herschel Walker in the vote on Tuesday “capped a gruelling and costly campaign”, said The New York Times. It also brought to a close a “marathon midterm election cycle in which Democrats defied history”, the paper added, by not only gaining a seat in the Senate but also “limiting the loss of House seats that typically greets the party that holds the White House”.

Warnock won with 51.4% of the vote in the run-off after failing in November to clear Georgia’s 50% threshold for an outright victory. Addressing supporters at his campaign’s victory party, Warnock said: “After a hard-fought campaign – or should I say campaigns – it is my honour to utter the four most powerful words ever spoken in a democracy: the people have spoken.”

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What does Warnock’s victory mean for the Senate?

The win is a “generational moment” and “potential opportunity to move a centre-left agenda forward for the country”, wrote political strategist and campaign expert Fredrick Hicks in an article for CNN.

The implications “extend well beyond the single Senate slot”, agreed Carl Hulse, the chief Washington correspondent at The New York Times (NYT)​​​​​​. Joe Biden’s administration can now “take much more operational control of the Senate, easing the confirmation of contentious nominees, clearing the way for investigations and in general availing themselves of breathing room on a variety of matters”.

Illinois’s senator Richard J. Durbin, the second-ranked Senate Democrat and chair of the powerful Judiciary Committee, told the paper that “it makes all the difference in the world”.

What does it means for Biden?

Prior to the midterms, the Senate was split 50-50, with Vice-President Kamala Harris casting the deciding vote in ties. The Republicans were able to veto some Biden nominees to critical posts, while others were stalled by time-consuming scraps.

Having a more decisive edge now on congressional committees “will allow Democrats to overcome Republican opposition”, said Hulse in the NYT, “if they can hold together”.

Democrats will also “enjoy bigger staffs and budgets”, said CNN, “giving them more ability to carry out committee work”.

In a further boost for Biden, the extra seat will help to defang Republican-leaning centrist Democrats. With a two-seat majority, Senate leader Chuck Schumer won’t always need to rely on votes from the likes of senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, both moderates who are up for reelection in 2024. “The two held enormous power in the 50-50 Senate,” said CNN.

ABC News pointed to another “big reason” why 51 is better than 50: “judges”. Confirming judges is a “huge priority for Democratic leadership”, especially after the Supreme Court overturned its past rulings on abortion rights earlier this year.

Democrats have been filling the lower courts with as many liberal justices as possible, with a total of 87 Biden-nominated judges confirmed as of 5 December, according to the Brookings Institution think tank. No other US president since John F. Kennedy has appointed more judges during their first two years in office. But a 51-seat majority could allow the Democrats to move even faster.

Even more significantly, should a Supreme Court seat become vacant due to an unexpected retirement or death of a justice, the GOP won’t be able to block Biden’s choice.

What about 2024?

A split Congress will “probably be less productive than the one that’s been under unified control for the last two years”, said politics reporter Li Zhou on Vox. But along with court appointments, Democrats will be able to “set their own floor agenda and “reject bills” approved by a GOP-led House of Representatives, she added. Plus, they will have “more leverage on must-pass bills like government funding and increases to the debt ceiling, which Republicans would otherwise be able to weaponise against Biden”.

The “extra cushion certainly makes it easier to manage a majority”, said the BBC’s North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher, “and it will also help in 2024 when the party will have more at-risk seats to defend”.

Two years from now, Democrats will be defending Joe Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, Jon Tester’s seat in Montana, and Sherrod Brown’s seat in Ohio – all states that voted for Donald Trump in the last presidential election. Democrat-held seats will also be up for grabs in states including Arizona, Michigan, and Maine.

“Essentially,” said Zhou, more seats now offers Democrats a greater ability to “withstand any shake-ups two years from now”.