What does Trump’s possible arrest mean for 2024 race?

Police, politicians and pundits across the US are bracing themselves for the possible arrest of Donald Trump later today.

The former president took to his Social Truth platform on Saturday to claim that he expects to be arrested today as part of the Manhattan district attorney’s investigation into hush money paid to adult film star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential election campaign.

With supporters comparing him to Nelson Mandela, Martin Luther King Jr and even Jesus Christ, and his own attorney, Rudy Giuliani, warning that prosecuting politicians is a sign of a nation in decline, there are fears that tensions, which are already at boiling point, could erupt into civil unrest.

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What did the papers say?

If street violence is the most immediate concern, there is also anxiety “hanging over Capitol Hill”, said The Hill, “as lawmakers prepare for – and react to – what could be the first indictment of an ex-president in US history”.

As CNN reported: “The rush of GOP leaders to preemptively condemn Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s potential indictment of Trump as inherently illegitimate and politically motivated underscores the party leadership’s ongoing reluctance to separate itself from, much less criticise, Trump in almost any way.”

Yet while allies and many senior Republicans, including House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and former vice-president Mike Pence, have come out strongly against any indictment, Trump’s main challenger for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, has so far remained silent.

The New York Times reported how Trump’s political operatives and friendly media outlets have been “publicly pressuring DeSantis to condemn the law enforcement officials in New York, portraying his silence on the matter as bordering on treason”.

The paper went on: “The effort previews how an indictment would jolt the still-nascent race for the Republican presidential nomination – and perhaps already has.” Trump has used the possibility of charges “to cast himself as a victim of political persecution” and “although his rivals largely want to keep a distance, Trump’s team is bent on pushing them to choose sides, risking the wrath of Republicans loyal to the former president”.

What next?

Politically, how any possible indictment may affect Trump’s chances in the 2024 presidential election is “unclear”, said Sky News.

“The frenzied posts from Trump reflected his deep panic and anxiety over the imminence and likelihood of criminal charges,” sources told The Guardian. Allies of the former president have suggested an indictment “could benefit him politically” as the Republican base might see the years-old case “as a genuine witch-hunt”. But it is also true that “Trump himself is deeply fearful of criminal charges”, said the paper.

As the first former US president to face criminal prosecution it “could lead to the unprecedented situation in which Trump would stand trial as he campaigns in 2024”, said Sky News. “If elected, he would not have the power to pardon himself of criminal charges.”

CNN added: “While indictments could well inspire a rally-around-the-flag reaction from Trump’s core supporters, more legal trouble for the former president could simultaneously harden the hesitations of the substantial party block worried about his ability to win in 2024, many GOP strategists believe.”

Despite this being a moment of intense political danger for the former president “you have to almost admire the elegance of the straight jacket in which Trump has wrapped DeSantis”, Salon said.

Contending that if he defends Trump he looks weak and if he does not he risks alienating the MAGA supporters he is trying so hard to win over, the magazine added that a further twist is that, as governor of the state where Trump is resident, DeSantis may have to decide whether to approve his extradition from Florida to New York to stand trial if the former president refuses to go voluntarily.

“Trump has been telling everyone who will listen that this will actually help his campaign by rallying the troops,” said Salon. “If he’s right that may just leave DeSantis standing there at the station as the Trump train speeds right by him. Donald Trump is the only politician in America whose criminal indictment might very well wind up destroying his top rival’s candidacy as he sails to the Republican nomination.”