The Democrats need a unified adversary in 2022


The generic congressional ballot — a national poll question on which party should control Congress — has been moving toward the Republicans. While there is some variation among pollsters, the RealClearPolitics polling average has the GOP ahead by over 3 points, and FiveThirtyEight has the parties effectively tied.
These numbers are probably better than what Republicans need to erase the Democrats' razor-thin congressional majorities in the midterm elections. And this lead is coming earlier in President Biden's term than a comparable ruling party slump in former President Obama's administration — and without the same kind of organized opposition supplied by the Tea Party. (Granted, the angry parents at local school board meetings who helped turn the Virginia governor's race evoke memories of protesters at congressional town hall meetings discussing ObamaCare.)
Maybe that's a good thing for Republicans. The public has gradually lost confidence in Biden's ability to restore normalcy and even in his basic competence. To register their disapproval of Biden and the Democrats, voters have little choice but to vote for Republicans — even if they still don't like them very much.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
It's also an ironic thing for Biden. He won in large part because he succeeded well enough in defining the election as a referendum on the incumbent president rather than a left-right binary choice. His party may lose power in the midterms and he himself may be defeated in 2024 because voters still see the election as more of a referendum on the incumbent.
Republicans are no longer defined by one leader, despite Virginia Democrats' best efforts to keep former President Donald Trump at the forefront (not to mention Trump's own efforts to the same end). Now Democrats are under scrutiny, and voters have turned against them.
Democrats know they need to change that to win the midterms, let alone the next presidential race. They had some success with this strategy in the California recall election, where conservative commentator Larry Elder was easier to tie to Trump than Governor-elect Glenn Youngkin (R) in Virginia. But that is an especially blue state. Trying the same tactic with parents who take issue with their children's public school curricula, as some Democratic operatives reportedly propose doing to opponents of critical race theory, is much riskier in terms of the potential backlash, albeit not a complete longshot.
Unless Democrats can succeed at making the midterms a binary choice, Republicans are poised to mirror Biden's 2020 win. It's their turn to benefit from joining forces with voters outraged by the political system in general. Rinse and repeat.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
W. James Antle III is the politics editor of the Washington Examiner, the former editor of The American Conservative, and author of Devouring Freedom: Can Big Government Ever Be Stopped?.
-
The party bringing Trump-style populism to Japan
Under The Radar Far-right party is ‘Rise of Sanseito is ‘shattering’ the belief that Japan is ‘immune’ to populism’ the belief that Japan is ‘immune’ to populism
-
Southern barbecue: This year’s top three
Feature A weekend-only restaurant, a 90-year-old pitmaster, and more
-
Film reviews: Anemone and The Smashing Machine
Feature A recluse receives an unwelcome guest and a pioneering UFC fighter battles addiction
-
Bondi stonewalls on Epstein, Comey in Senate face-off
Speed Read Attorney General Pam Bondi denied charges of using the Justice Department in service of Trump’s personal vendettas
-
Why is this government shutdown so consequential?
Today's Big Question Federal employee layoffs could be in the thousands
-
Shutdown: Democrats stand firm, at a cost
Feature With Trump refusing to negotiate, Democrats’ fight over health care could push the government toward a shutdown
-
Graphic videos of Charlie Kirk’s death renew debate over online censorship
Talking Points Social media ‘promises unfiltered access, but without guarantees of truth and without protection from harm’
-
Why does Donald Trump keep showing up at major sporting events?
Today's Big Question Trump has appeared at the Super Bowl, the Daytona 500 and other events
-
Trump's drug war is now a real shooting war
Talking Points The Venezuela boat strike was 'not a mere law enforcement action'
-
Truck drivers are questioning the Trump administration's English mandate
Talking Points Some have praised the rules, others are concerned they could lead to profiling
-
Gavin Newsom's Trump-style trolling roils critics while thrilling fans
TALKING POINTS The California governor has turned his X account into a cutting parody of Trump's digital cadence, angering Fox News conservatives