The Democrats need a unified adversary in 2022


The generic congressional ballot — a national poll question on which party should control Congress — has been moving toward the Republicans. While there is some variation among pollsters, the RealClearPolitics polling average has the GOP ahead by over 3 points, and FiveThirtyEight has the parties effectively tied.
These numbers are probably better than what Republicans need to erase the Democrats' razor-thin congressional majorities in the midterm elections. And this lead is coming earlier in President Biden's term than a comparable ruling party slump in former President Obama's administration — and without the same kind of organized opposition supplied by the Tea Party. (Granted, the angry parents at local school board meetings who helped turn the Virginia governor's race evoke memories of protesters at congressional town hall meetings discussing ObamaCare.)
Maybe that's a good thing for Republicans. The public has gradually lost confidence in Biden's ability to restore normalcy and even in his basic competence. To register their disapproval of Biden and the Democrats, voters have little choice but to vote for Republicans — even if they still don't like them very much.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
It's also an ironic thing for Biden. He won in large part because he succeeded well enough in defining the election as a referendum on the incumbent president rather than a left-right binary choice. His party may lose power in the midterms and he himself may be defeated in 2024 because voters still see the election as more of a referendum on the incumbent.
Republicans are no longer defined by one leader, despite Virginia Democrats' best efforts to keep former President Donald Trump at the forefront (not to mention Trump's own efforts to the same end). Now Democrats are under scrutiny, and voters have turned against them.
Democrats know they need to change that to win the midterms, let alone the next presidential race. They had some success with this strategy in the California recall election, where conservative commentator Larry Elder was easier to tie to Trump than Governor-elect Glenn Youngkin (R) in Virginia. But that is an especially blue state. Trying the same tactic with parents who take issue with their children's public school curricula, as some Democratic operatives reportedly propose doing to opponents of critical race theory, is much riskier in terms of the potential backlash, albeit not a complete longshot.
Unless Democrats can succeed at making the midterms a binary choice, Republicans are poised to mirror Biden's 2020 win. It's their turn to benefit from joining forces with voters outraged by the political system in general. Rinse and repeat.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
W. James Antle III is the politics editor of the Washington Examiner, the former editor of The American Conservative, and author of Devouring Freedom: Can Big Government Ever Be Stopped?.
-
The Supreme Court and Congress have Planned Parenthood in their crosshairs
Talking Points Trump's budget bill and the court's ruling threaten abortion access
-
How will Trump's megabill affect you?
Today's Big Question Republicans have passed the 'big, beautiful bill' through Congress
-
How successful would Elon Musk's third party be?
Today's Big Question Musk has vowed to start a third party after falling out with Trump
-
The last words and final moments of 40 presidents
The Explainer Some are eloquent quotes worthy of the holders of the highest office in the nation, and others... aren't
-
How Zohran Mamdani's NYC mayoral run will change the Democratic Party
Talking Points The candidate poses a challenge to the party's 'dinosaur wing'
-
Is Trump's military parade 'just a parade'?
Talking Point Critics see an 'echo of authoritarianism'
-
Is Trump's LA troop deployment about order or authoritarianism?
Talking Points President: 'We're going to have troops everywhere.'
-
Musk: What did he achieve in Washington?
Feature Elon Musk leaves his government job but not after bruising his image, slashing aid and firing thousands