Will abortion decide the 2024 elections?
Abortion access is on the ballot in several states and a focus in the presidential campaign. The question is whether it will boost Democrats as much as they hope.
The House Majority PAC has started a $100 million fund focused on abortion rights in the party's latest effort to win votes as Republicans hammer issues like the economy and immigration, according to The Wall Street Journal. The PAC, which supports Democrats' push to take back the House, told donors the Reproductive Freedom Accountability Fund would be used for advertising and get-out-the-vote campaigns in swing districts and competitive House races.
Democrats are betting their advocacy for reproductive rights, which Americans support in polls, will help them erase the GOP's razor-thin majority in the House and help President Joe Biden overcome a polling slump that puts him behind Donald Trump. As president, the Republican challenger bolstered the conservative Supreme Court majority that overturned the abortion-rights protections of Roe v. Wade. Trump, like other Republicans, backs limits on abortion. Could this be the issue that decides which party fares better in November?
Abortion tips the scales to Democrats
Abortion has "played to Democrats' considerable advantage" ever since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade nearly two years ago, said Mark Z. Barabak in the Los Angeles Times. After the sudden loss of a "50-year-old constitutional right to abortion," it "helped the party avoid a widely predicted wipeout in the 2022 midterm elections" and forced Trump and other Republicans to twist themselves into knots trying to satisfy conservatives without "alienating" the pro-abortion rights majority. The issue could motivate voters who are not crazy about Biden to vote for the incumbent anyway. That "could make all the difference" in a close race.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
"Anger over Republican-backed abortion bans may give Democrats an edge in November," said Mara Gay in The New York Times. That is especially true in states like Florida, where a proposed state constitutional amendment to "establish a right to abortion before viability" could attract people angry about post-Roe restrictions to the polls. But "righteous anger and grief over the loss of reproductive freedom in Florida" might "not be enough to revive the state's Democratic Party" or keep Trump from winning Florida's electoral votes. Political analysts say many Republicans might vote for the constitutional amendment "but reject Democrats," including Biden. It will take more than one issue to "build a lasting political coalition" in places like Florida where Republicans have gained the upper hand.
The economy and inflation could matter more
Georgia's state Supreme Court election provided the latest indication abortion "may not be the silver bullet" Democrats think it is, said Henry Olsen at National Review. The party thought former Democratic congressman John Barrow, who "argued that the state constitution guaranteed a right to abortion," had a good chance to unseat Andrew Pinson, a state Supreme Court justice appointed by Republican Gov. Brian Kemp. But Pinson demolished Barrow by 10 percentage points, a bigger margin than in Stacey Abrams' loss to Kemp in 2022. "This is not a sign that support for abortion rights will swing red voters over to Team Blue." Polls have shown "inflation, the economy and immigration remain of greater import to voters, especially independent voters."
It still is hard to say how the abortion rights issue will play out on a national scale this November, said the Newsday editorial board. Since the Supreme Court's 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson, which "upheld a Mississippi law banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy," changed the abortion landscape, "the procedure has been banned in some states while access to it expanded in others. The tumultuous five-decade legal and political struggle over the government's involvement in the outcome of a woman's pregnancy continues unabated." Trump, who picked three of the justices in the high court's 6-3 conservative majority that overturned Roe, took "credit for the great reversal" but has had trouble "finding a popular footing on the issue in his bid for a second term." Two years after the Supreme Court told the nation, "'You decide,' the question is being called for a vote."
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Harold Maass is a contributing editor at The Week. He has been writing for The Week since the 2001 debut of the U.S. print edition and served as editor of TheWeek.com when it launched in 2008. Harold started his career as a newspaper reporter in South Florida and Haiti. He has previously worked for a variety of news outlets, including The Miami Herald, ABC News and Fox News, and for several years wrote a daily roundup of financial news for The Week and Yahoo Finance.
-
Titan submersible inquiry reveals safety lessons for the future
In the Spotlight The submersible imploded in June 2023, killing all five people aboard
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
Is Mark Robinson a GOP fluke or an inevitability of MAGA conservatism?
Today's Big Question Revelations about the North Carolina Republican's porn forum comments are shocking, but for those who've followed the gubernatorial candidate's career in politics, they're not necessarily a surprise
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
'Pompous, unquestioning belief'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
Is Mark Robinson a GOP fluke or an inevitability of MAGA conservatism?
Today's Big Question Revelations about the North Carolina Republican's porn forum comments are shocking, but for those who've followed the gubernatorial candidate's career in politics, they're not necessarily a surprise
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
'Pompous, unquestioning belief'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
Suspect charged with trying to assassinate Trump
Speed Read A federal grand jury in Miami indicted Ryan Routh
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Biden gives final UN speech, vows 'things can get better'
Speed Read President Joe Biden addressed the United Nations General Assembly for the last time
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Why Trump is bailing on a second presidential debate
The Explainer Campaign strategy, rather than media bias, likely explains Trump's decision
By David Faris Published
-
'What strategies will they implement to reduce its harms?'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
1 of 6 'Trump Train' drivers liable in Biden bus blockade
Speed Read Only one of the accused was found liable in the case concerning the deliberate slowing of a 2020 Biden campaign bus
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
What might be next for Trump if he loses the 2024 election?
Today's Big Question The former president has said he will likely not run again in 2028
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published