Israel's Gaza offensive is at a crossroads. What comes next?

After a month of violence and destruction, the war between Israel and Hamas is poised to enter a new phase

IDF soldier looking at a multi-directional Star of David
IDF officials are debating whether to prioritize a southern offensive in Gaza or hostage negotiations
(Image credit: Illustrated / Getty Images)

When Hamas fighters crossed into Israel from the Gaza Strip on October 7, killing some 1,200 people before retreating back into isolate Palestinian territory with more than 200 hostages in tow, they did so with the expectation — the hope, even — that their attack would provoke "an overwhelming Israeli response" and embroil the entire region in the spiraling cycle of violence. In the days and weeks that followed, the Israeli government has seemed more than willing to acquiesce — first with a brutal aerial bombardment of the densely packed strip, followed by a slow ground incursion that has killed more than 14,000 Palestinians, including thousands of children, creating a massive humanitarian crisis that's captured attention and inflamed passions across the globe

Throughout the fighting, Israeli officials have offered a number of different, if interconnected, reasons and goals to justify the sheer ferocity of their actions in Gaza: from rescuing the hundreds of hostages still held in captivity to decimating Hamas entirely to deterring future attacks from across the region. Now, following an extended siege on Gaza City's al-Shifa hospital, under which Israel claims Hamas had built an extensive subterranean command center, officials have begun suggesting the Israeli Defense Forces may turn their guns toward southern Gaza, where many civilians have condensed themselves — often at Israel's own urging — to escape the fighting in Gaza City. At the same time, any plans to push south are complicated by ongoing negotiations between Israeli and Hamas officials, as well as within the Israeli government itself, over the release of the captured hostages — discussions that are "intense and remain fluid" according to ABC News. All the while, international pressure for a cease-fire continues to mount. 

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Rafi Schwartz, The Week US

Rafi Schwartz has worked as a politics writer at The Week since 2022, where he covers elections, Congress and the White House. He was previously a contributing writer with Mic focusing largely on politics, a senior writer with Splinter News, a staff writer for Fusion's news lab, and the managing editor of Heeb Magazine, a Jewish life and culture publication. Rafi's work has appeared in Rolling Stone, GOOD and The Forward, among others.