Are down-ticket Democrats doomed?

Joe Biden is running for president. As the candidate-in-chief has stressed repeatedly in the weeks following his disastrous debate performance last month, the 81-year-old incumbent has no intention to step aside and cede the Democratic presidential nomination, no matter how much a growing number from within his party may want him to. "If the Lord Almighty came down and said, 'Joe, get out of the race,' I'd get out of the race," Biden said during a recent interview with ABC News' George Stephanopoulos. "The Lord Almighty's not coming down." 

What is coming down — or perhaps more accurately "trickling" down — is a sense that the controversy over Biden's age and mental acuity may not simply be harming his campaign, but those of down-ballot Democrats as well. While candidates on the state and local levels are often keen to draft in the wake of their party's popular incumbent, some party strategists and pundits have begun questioning whether the inverse could doom Democrats in competitive races across the country. As Biden's post-debate poll numbers continue to drop, has his campaign become a liability for down-ballot Democrats — particularly in an election cycle where the narrow fate of Congress also hangs in the balance? Although some within the party have begun openly predicting doom and gloom, not all Democrats are so pessimistic about their local prospects. 

'This could be a problem'

Lackluster enthusiasm for Biden means local Democratic candidates will have to "heavily rely on community issues" said Republican strategist Susan Del Percio on MSNBC. Moreover, depressed turnout will force candidates to "develop a stronger get-out-the-vote operation than typical" which they "probably aren't used to setting up." Candidates running in solidly blue districts are probably "not worried about this," said Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Ga.) to Axios. But for Democrats hoping to flip seats in "marginal" districts, "yeah, this could be a problem for you."

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Democrats are worried that "problems at the top will drag everything else completely under: local, state, federal, everything," said one anonymous campaign fundraiser who works with both Democratic and Republican donors to Politico. 

Many Democrats running for local office have "long known that Biden could drag down their own support," with some "working to separate themselves from the president" well before last month's debate, The Wall Street Journal said. Party strategists now worry that his debate showing could potentially offset the "work that down-ballot Democrats have done to try to win despite Biden's historically low approval ratings." At the same time, Republicans have "looked to seize the moment" and prey on those resurgent Democratic concerns, recently releasing an ad that "linked Democrats to Biden's debate performance" featuring "battleground Senate candidates like [Wisconsin Sen. Tammy] Baldwin, Michigan's Elissa Slotkin, Ohio's Sherrod Brown, and Montana's Jon Tester defending Biden, interspersed with clips from his debate performance," The Associated Press said. 

'Localize these races as much as possible'

While some Democrats have publicly aired fears of a party-wide wipeout as part of their justification for calling on Biden to end his reelection campaign, not everyone is quite so downbeat about down-ticket races. In part, that's due to several state and local candidates running well ahead of Biden, leading to "speculation that November could see the highest levels of ticket-splitting in years," The Hill said. Support for Democratic House and Senate candidates could "actually grow if voters want a check on a Trump presidency they see as likely," Cook Political Report's Amy Walter explained, per The Wall Street Journal. It's "not all bad news for down-ballot Democrats," agreed ABC News. "Since the debate, six Democratic Senate candidates in tough races have reported eye-popping fundraising hauls for the second quarter of this year."

Meanwhile, some local Democratic legislators in key battleground states have signaled they have no intention of changing their campaign tactics — at least for now. Rather, it has "always been our strategy to localize these races as much as possible," said Wisconsin State Rep. Greta Neubauer on a press call organized by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. The group intends to pour $10 million into highlighting "issues where state legislatures can have a major effect on people's daily lives, like abortion, LGBTQ+ rights and education," The New York Times said.