Why the GOP is nervous about Ken Paxton's Senate run

Sen. John Cornyn has long been a reliable conservative in Congress. But that may not be enough to get the Texas Republican reelected. He now faces a primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a battle between the old-guard GOP establishment and the party's ascendant MAGA wing.

The Cornyn-Paxton primary fight is a "proxy war" in the GOP, said Axios. "Top MAGA luminaries" are skeptical of Cornyn because of his pro-Ukraine stance and work on a bipartisan gun bill after the 2022 Uvalde school massacre. The senator is the "epitome of the establishment," said Steve Bannon, an ally of President Donald Trump, to Axios. Paxton, meanwhile, carries a reputation as a "pro-Donald Trump knife fighter," said Axios. His candidacy is a "warning shot," said MAGA influencer Charlie Kirk on his eponymous radio show.

This makes Trump's approval critical in the race, said The Hill. The president said Thursday he will make an endorsement "at the right time." Cornyn has already been endorsed by Majority Leader John Thune (R-N.D.) and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott (S.C.). But the president's nod will make the biggest splash. Trump is not tipping his hand. "They're both friends of mine," he said Saturday.

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'Can't control' Trump

Paxton's new campaign is "becoming a major headache for Republicans," said Politico. They're worried that Trump "could elevate more MAGA-aligned challengers" to sitting GOP senators, "forcing a round of bitterly contested primaries." Sens. Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana are seen as vulnerable to challenge from the right. That could "complicate" the Republican Party's efforts to retain control of the Senate in 2026, even though the map is "heavily tilted" in their favor. The challenge: GOP leaders "need Trump but also know they can't control him."

Another "overriding fear" is that a bitter Texas primary will be expensive, said CNN. The campaign could cost the party more than $100 million, "siphoning money from other critical battlegrounds." And Republicans worry the divisiveness of the Cornyn-Paxton campaign will result in a "wounded" general election candidate who "could end up giving Democrats a chance in what would otherwise be a long-shot pickup opportunity."

Fight over 'who's closer to Trump'

The race could "come down to Trump loyalty," Ryan J. Rusak said at The Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Paxton is a "great survivor" in state politics, emerging unscathed from corruption accusations and a failed impeachment attempt. And Cornyn's problem "seems to be that he's not angry enough all the time." The race will not be about who can be the best senator for Texas. Instead, prepare for a year of "arguing over who's closer to Trump."

The arguments have begun, said The Associated Press. Cornyn called Paxton a "conman and a fraud" after Paxton entered the race. Paxton, meanwhile, is openly campaigning for Trump's endorsement. That would be a "death knell" for Cornyn's career, he said.