Land grab in Latin America: a dictator’s dream?

Thanks to the reckless bravado of Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro, Latin America is at risk of "major continental war for the first time in 75 years", said Alexandra Sharp in Foreign Policy (Washington). 

Caracas has long staked a claim to Essequibo, a mineral-rich swathe of the Amazon that accounts for two-thirds of neighbouring Guyana – the former British Guiana. That claim acquired added urgency in 2015, when US energy giant ExxonMobil discovered oil reserves off Essequibo's coast – some 11 billion barrels' worth to date. 

And last week, in a referendum staged in order to rubber-stamp Venezuela's claim to Essequibo, Maduro claimed he now had the mandate to put that claim into effect. But the vote was held in defiance of a ruling by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague, and has raised fears across Latin America that Venezuela could be about to use military force to grab another country's land.

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'A vile plunder'

Venezuela's claim to this region dates back centuries, said Luis Alberto Perozo Padua in El Universal (Caracas). Essequibo was administered by Dutch colonisers for 200 years or so until, in 1814, those same colonisers sold a swathe of territory along South America's northern coast to the British. Britain then proceeded to launch a series of incursions into the territory of the recently independent Venezuela – a "vile plunder" that robbed us of vast tracts of resource- and oil-rich land.

Naturally, Caracas tried to resist; but in 1899 an international tribunal in Paris ruled that Essequibo was a part of British Guiana. And ever since Guyana won independence in 1966, the dispute has rumbled on and remains the subject of proceedings in the ICJ. As pretty much all Venezuelans view Essequibo as part of their nation's territory, Maduro had assumed his referendum would boost his waning popularity ahead of next year's elections, said Rafael García Marvez in El Nacional (Caracas). But a vast majority of voters stayed at home, making a mockery of his claim of 95% support. Desperate and disillusioned, Venezuelans had no appetite to hand Maduro a meaningful victory.

'Just sound and fury'

Be that as it may, the vote has still powerfully unsettled us in Guyana, said Frederick Kissoon in The Guyana Chronicle (Georgetown). Maduro is a ruthless dictator, and has already ordered state firms to exploit oil deposits in Essequibo. Will his next step be to deploy the army? Actually, that's not at all likely, said James Bosworth in World Politics Review (Tampa). Venezuela's claim to Essequibo is disputed by virtually every country in the world – even by Maduro's allies in communist Cuba.

So any military intervention would lead to a fresh round of international sanctions on Caracas that the regime could ill afford, to say the least. Besides, Venezuela's army can barely maintain control of its own territory, let alone seize control of a dense area of jungle almost the size of Florida. Unless Maduro has actually lost his marbles, this is all "just sound and fury".