Is Nigel Farage heading to the Commons?

It has been a bruising end to the election campaign for Reform UK, said Stephen Bush in the FT. 

Nigel Farage has attracted flak for asserting in an interview that the West "provoked" Russia into invading Ukraine. And his party has been hit by a string of embarrassing news reports about its supporters. 

Last week it distanced itself from a volunteer canvasser who had been filmed by an undercover Channel 4 reporter making offensive comments. Andrew Parker had called Rishi Sunak a "f**king P***", and suggested that the Army should use migrants arriving on British beaches for target practice. Over the weekend, Reform disowned three candidates over other offensive remarks. 

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Collectively, these stories have generated "the worst headlines in the party's brief existence". But since Reform UK is largely targeting older voters, many of whom are likely to have already voted by post, the impact may be limited.

Lib Dems' 'patron saint'

Despite the fuss over his "Putin-sympathising language", Farage looks on track to "turn British politics upside-down" once again, said Fraser Nelson in The Spectator. By splitting the conservative vote, Reform will gift seats to the other opposition parties and devastate the Tories.

The Lib Dems are predicted to win Salisbury, which has been Tory for a century, and could even claim Tunbridge Wells, which has voted Tory for even longer. "Farage has become our patron saint," says one Lib Dem strategist. "He can do more for our chances than we can. Our guys should really dress up [like] his and campaign for Reform."

The voice of voter discontent

Farage has been tormenting the Tories for 14 years, said Freddie Hayward in The New Statesman. After the election, he'll become Labour's problem, too. No other politician in Britain can match him when it comes to getting a message across and enthusing supporters.

Although many of his backers are older, he has been attracting growing support from the young. Reform UK polls higher than the Tories with 18- to 25-year-olds. "Farage has 804,000 followers on TikTok, compared with Labour's 207,000 and the Tories' 67,000."

The difference between Farage's campaign and those of the main parties has been striking, said John Crace in The Guardian. While Sunak and Keir Starmer "have gone out of their way to meet as few members of the public as possible – one or two strictly controlled photo ops a day", Farage has held old-fashioned rallies. His plans, to the extent that he has revealed any, don't bear much examination, but he does know how to give voice to people's discontent. Next week, in all likeliness, he will have a seat in Parliament. "Don't say you haven't been warned."