Offseason elections spell danger for the GOP

What happened

In a sign of brewing backlash against Republicans, a conservative backed by the wealth of Elon Musk suffered a resounding defeat in the race for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat, while the Republican margin of victory shrank dramatically in congressional races in two deep-red Florida districts. In Wisconsin, Susan Crawford defeated fellow judge Brad Schimel by 10 percentage points, allowing the state's high court to retain its 4-3 liberal majority. Donors poured over $100 million into the race—with Musk coughing up $25 million of that—making it the most expensive judicial contest in history. The world's richest man hurled himself into campaigning for Schimel, wearing a Wisconsin cheesehead hat at a rally and saying "the entire destiny of humanity" turned on the outcome of the race. To juice turnout, he awarded two lucky voters $1 million each and offered $50 to anyone who posted a photo of a Wisconsin resident at a polling place. Democrats sued, saying Musk was buying votes, but Wisconsin's high court refused to hear the case. Still, Crawford prevailed. "Justice does not have a price," she said. "Our courts are not for sale."

In Florida, Republicans easily won the House seats vacated by national security adviser Mike Waltz and former Rep. Matt Gaetz. Yet while those districts swung last year for President Trump by 37 points and 30 points, respectively, Republicans Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine managed only half those margins. Trump wrote on Truth Social that his endorsement of the two "PROVED FAR GREATER THAN THE DEMOCRATS FORCES OF EVIL."

What the columnists said

Musk's passionate support for Schimel apparently backfired, said Reid J. Epstein in The New York Times. Thanks largely to "his slashing of the federal government" through DOGE, Musk is seen unfavorably by most voters nationwide including 53 percent in Wisconsin, and the Crawford team benefited from making the campaign into "a kind of referendum" on him. The Trump administration is now saying Musk will step down as DOGE head, said Rachael Bade in Politico. The "Washington hatchet man" has become "a political liability."

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The Democrats are celebrating, but the truth is, the Republicans could have fared "much worse," said Jim Geraghty in National Review. Before this week, Republicans had only a 218-213 House majority, which made Trump nervous enough to pull New York Rep. Elise Stefanik's nomination for U.N. ambassador so as not to risk losing her seat. But now the GOP has 220, thanks to Fine and Patronis, who won even though they were vastly outspent. Democrats are "probably not winning in these districts for a long, long time."

Yet the midterms aren't too far away, said Karen Tumulty in The Washington Post, and this week's results suggest that GOP turn-out suffers "when Trump is not on the ballot." What's more, the Wisconsin Supreme Court's liberal majority could soon help re-draw the state's "heavily gerrymandered" electoral map, putting two more Republican House seats at risk. The Musk-led defeat is "a flashing warning sign for Republicans in 2026."