Boris Nadezhdin: Russia's next (but not necessarily best) shot at ousting Vladimir Putin

Boris Nadezhdin is hardly a household name outside of his native Russia, but to hear the former lawmaker tell it, his dark horse bid to unseat longtime President Vladimir Putin in next month's elections has a secret weapon in his corner: Divinity. "You can call it God or fate, but there's a tangible force driving my campaign," Nadezhdin told Politico this week, citing a "number of miracles" and "astonishing things" that have bolstered his quixotic effort to deny Putin another six-year term in office when Russians go to the polls in March. 

Whether theologically ordained or not, Nadezhdin is undeniably correct that his campaign has succeeded in shaking up an electoral cycle largely seen as a pro-forma precursor to another Putin presidency. On Wednesday, the onetime member of Russia's Duma and critic of Moscow's ongoing war against Ukraine submitted more than 180,000 signatures of support to the country's Central Election Commission — well above the 100,000 threshold required to qualify as a candidate for president. Calling the signatures his "pride" and the product of "many days work" from those who stood "in the cold," Nadezhdin predicted on X that it would be hard for the commission and the Putin regime to say "I didn't even notice the elephant" that is his campaign.

Nadezhdin's surprisingly strong showing of public support has been fueled in large part by his outspoken pledge to "stop the conflict with Ukraine, and then to restore normal relations between Russia and the Western community." But in a totalitarian state like Putin's Russia, can Nadezhdin really make an electoral difference? 

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A 'catalyst for protest'

In spite of his groundswell of public support, "Nobody expects Nadezhdin, 60, to win," in a country where Putin's victory is "widely seen as a foregone conclusion," Reuters reported. Still, he has "surprised some analysts" with the tone and tenor of his ongoing criticism of the war with Ukraine, and become a "problem" for Putin, international affairs professor Nina Khrushcheva told the outlet. 

While Nadezhdin was "long seen as harmless by authorities" in Russia, his campaign's ability to attract significant support and large crowds has become a "catalyst for protest" even among voters who only know his candidacy by the broadest strokes, according to Le Monde. The energy around Nadezhdin "speaks of widespread dissatisfaction with the Kremlin and its war," Politico agreed, predicting that any forthcoming effort by the Putin camp to either allow or bar his chief rival from continuing to campaign will "offer a glimpse of its own confidence levels." 

Nadezhdin's campaign offers "genuine political risk for the Kremlin," PBS News reported, pointing out that Putin's widely expected victory must come with an aura of "legitimacy" to be accepted as the result of a "genuine contest." Nadezhdin "provides a shadow of hope" for Putin critics whom the Kremlin is counting on staying home next month, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center political scientist Ekaterina Schulmann explained. Accordingly, in the "scorched field that is modern Russian politics," many Russian dissidents see Nadezhdin as the "best bet" to demonstrate that Putin "does not enjoy unanimous support," The Washington Post reported. 

'Convenient for the Kremlin'

Whether actively supported by Putin's regime or merely tolerated for offering a veneer of legitimacy, Nadezhdin's campaign is "convenient for the Kremlin" Russian political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin told Germany's Deutsche Welle, adding that he would cease being an "acceptable" candidate if he were to garner more than five percent of the vote — an "ideological victory, though not an electoral one."

With many analysts predicting Nadezhdin would "run a tame campaign in close coordination" with the Kremlin, it's "very likely there were some preliminary negotiations" between his and Putin's camps at the onset of his candidacy, according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Andrey Pertsev. Now, however, the "nature of his public statements " suggests there's "no way he is currently acting as a spoiler candidate, or being curated by Kremlin managers."

Still, the fact that he has been "a regular guest on state TV" and nevertheless allowed to continue his campaign "in such a tightly controlled political system without the authorities' blessing" has suggested to critics that Nadezhdin is, ultimately, being tolerated by Kremlin authorities, Reuters reported.