Syria's Kurdish community at the center of a post-Assad game of geopolitical tug-of-war

Last month's sudden and tumultuous overthrow of Syria's longtime dictator Bashar al-Assad marked a moment of seismic upheaval in a region already straining under the weight of spiraling wars and geopolitical strife. Years in the making, Assad's ousting now leaves Syria in a state of fragile uncertainty, as the various insurgent factions who helped bring Syria to this point vie for control moving forward, often with the backing of international partners keen to capitalize on a regional power vacuum.

In the middle of these intersecting vectors of influence and interest lies the Syrian Democratic Forces, an American-backed military group of Kurdish-led fighters that controls approximately one-third of the country after helping the U.S. fight ISIS in the region. The SDF's accumulated power has placed it — and Syria's ethnic minority Kurdish community at large — at the center of a fight for the country's future. The regional powerhouse Turkey is threatening to eliminate the military group as part of a broader anti-Kurdish enterprise, and the U.S. is pondering if and how to best support a proven ally.

'Uncertain future'

For more than a decade, the Kurdish SDF was "America's most reliable partner in Syria," The New York Times said, not only recapturing territory formerly held by ISIS but detaining "around 9,000 of its fighters." Turkey, though, views the group as "allied with the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party which has fought the Turkish state for decades." With Turkey maneuvering to "make itself a key player as its southern neighbor stabilizes," that country has increasingly threatened direct military action against Syria's Kurdish forces unless they "accept Ankara's conditions for a 'bloodless' transition," Al Jazeera said.

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Syria's new post-Assad leadership, worried about the country's "uncertain future," last month "took steps to dissolve the different rebel factions and unite them under the new Syrian army," National Public Radio said. The SDF did not participate in that unification process, claiming that while it "wasn't opposed to joining the Syrian military in principle," any such action "required negotiations with Damascus." Crucially, the Syrian National Army — the group most closely aligned with Turkey, "is interacting with the new Syrian leadership in Damascus to integrate into a unified army," said Foundation for the Defense of Democracies research analyst Ahmad Sharawi. The question then is whether or not any future unified army "will participate in an offensive against northeastern Syria and SDF-controlled areas."

Securing US 'interests and reputation'

There are 2,000 American troops in the country, and "most U.S. objectives in Syria have been accomplished." Those goals include mitigating the threat from ISIS, staunching the use of Syria as a conduit for Iranian influence in Lebanon and deposing the Assad regime, said Steven Simon and Joshua Landis at Foreign Affairs. "Only the fate of Syrian Kurds remains unresolved."

While the bulk of Syria is "awash with armed groups" in the wake of Assad's ouster, the northeast region under SDF control has been an "island of stability amid the chaos" thanks in no small part to the Kurds who have "sacrificed greatly to support the U.S.-led war on terror," said Georgetown University security studies professor David Phillips at The Hill. As "allies and friends with whom we share strategic interests and values," America's "interests and reputation" demand the United States support them against any potential Turkish aggression. A "best-case scenario for the Kurds," said The New York Times, would be American support that enables "leverage with the new government in Damascus to pursue a fully autonomous state." A worst case scenario for the Kurds: "Inflamed conflict with Turkish-backed fighters, be forced to cede control of at least some of their oil-rich territory" and "if President-elect Donald J. Trump decides to withdraw U.S. troops," the SFD could "lose vital help on the ground."