What could happen to the US food supply under Trump's isolationist agenda?

President Donald Trump claims his electoral victory came down to two issues. "I won on the border, and I won on groceries," he said to NBC News in December. But his immigration and trade policies may be risky for domestic food supply, and could affect Americans' grocery budgets.

One week into his second administration, egg prices are at an all-time high, and Democratic lawmakers have already begun urging Trump to "make good" on his campaign promise to lower food costs. However, the White House's agenda of stringent international tariffs coupled with its plans for mass deportations has raised an alarming prospect — not just for the cost of eggs, but for America's food supply industry at large, given its reliance on both imports and migrant labor.

What did the commentators say?

The majority of crop workers in the United States are foreign-born, with some 42% operating without authorization, the Department of Labor said in a study conducted between 2020 and 2022. All told, the vast majority of foreign-born crop workers (79%) have been in the U.S. for at least 10 years. Given those numbers, Trump's deportation agenda threatens to "dramatically raise the cost of produce," said the Harvard Business Review, "especially fruit like strawberries and blueberries, or anything that must be handpicked." Mass deportations like those Trump has proposed would "shock the food supply chain and drive consumer grocery prices higher," said David Ortega, professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University, to Reuters.

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Despite claims by various White House officials that American citizens will fill the labor demands that would arise should the administration follow through on its "most ambitious mass deportation plans," the inverse is "likely to happen," said Politico. Instead, experts predict the White House would expand the existing H-2 visa program, which provides temporary work visas to foreign nationals. In turn, the program is "likely be more vulnerable to abuse" and would "come at American workers' expense." Moreover, given the size and historical entrenchment of the farm labor industry, "no other workforce currently exists that could replace unauthorized workers," said Investigate Midwest.

Trump's plan to levy sweeping tariffs on international imports could also dramatically alter the average consumer's ability to purchase food. Currently "around 15% of the total American food supply is imported from other countries," said Eater, and the U.S. has "imported more agricultural products than it has exported for three of the past five years." This "agricultural trade deficit" is due in large part to "increased demand for imported food products" by American consumers. Should Trump's tariffs go into effect, consumers may need to shift their shopping habits to "discount or bulk retailers to manage rising costs" and begin focusing more on domestically farmed items, said Forbes. And while that might be good for the American farm industry in general, "increased demand" could ultimately "drive up prices for local goods."

What next?

For Brooke Rollins, Trump's nominee to become the next secretary of agriculture, there is no "conflict" between the administration's deportation plans and any "hypothetical" threat to farm labor. During her confirmation hearing, Rollins said she would "work with the secretary of labor on the H-2A program" that allows temporary work authorizations for agricultural work.

Despite being a "political 'third rail,' when it comes to the food supply industry," the U.S. "desperately needs immigration reform," said Harvard Business Review. Ultimately, said Forbes, consumers will need to "balance affordability and availability in a potentially more constrained grocery landscape."