UK election 2024: Rishi Sunak's annus horribilis?

Jeremy Hunt's announcement that the spring Budget will take place on 6 March – earlier than expected – prompted speculation that the Government plans to call an election in May to take advantage of voter goodwill created by any new tax cuts. 

But senior Tories dismissed the idea: Rishi Sunak said on Thursday that his "working assumption" was that it would take place "in the second half of this year". 

Winning a fifth term after 14 years in power is a tall order, said The Independent, and few expect the Tories to manage it. Sunak is burdened with the "difficult legacy" of his predecessors, and he has made errors of his own, particularly in staking so much political capital on his unrealistic pledge to "stop the boats". 

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'Prospects look bleak'

The prospects look bleak for the Government, agreed The Daily Telegraph. When the PM promised last January to reduce the NHS backlog, there were 7.2 million people on waiting lists; now, there are 7.7 million. Debt as a share of GDP is rising, not falling. The one blessing is that the Tories are now at least debating how best to cut taxes.

All is not lost for the Tories, said the Daily Mail. Inflation is falling and a report by accountants PwC finds the UK's outlook is "far rosier" than expected. If Sunak can convince voters that he has a credible strategy to get the public sector working again, he's in with a shot.

Going to the polls on 2 May, when there are local elections in nearly all of England and Wales, would have had some advantages. It would have averted accusations that Sunak was "clinging on", and helped bring out the vote. Waiting until the autumn could also cost the party votes, as more households come off their fixed-rate mortgages and have to renew at higher rates.

'Hope something turns up'

But there would have been dangers, too, with a May election, said Isabel Hardman in The Guardian. "The Budget-as-starting-gun theory relies largely on that fiscal event going well." And as the Tories know to their cost, they don't always do so, even when they include tax cuts.

In his Autumn Statement, Hunt proudly unveiled some tax cuts, while glossing over the stealth taxes imposed by freezing tax thresholds, said Fraser Nelson in The Daily Telegraph. If the Tories repeat that trick in March, in the hope of winning a pre-election bounce, it won't work. Sunak is wise to hold off the election until the end of the year, by which time some recent benign trends should have become more evident. Migration, inflation, mortgage rates, waiting lists and small-boat arrivals are now "on the way down".

If Sunak wants to campaign on "real achievements" rather than "illusory ones", holding fire is sensible. Sunak has only been PM for little more than a year, said John Curtice in the Daily Express, and he knows that election defeat will spell the end of his political career. So he has every reason to sit tight and "hope that something turns up before the autumn".