When will the next UK general election happen?
Mid-October is most likely option, but PM could wait until December and hope for a Christmas miracle
Rishi Sunak is still refusing to say when he will call a general election, with most political commentators expecting it in October or November.
The prime minister faces "mounting pressure" to finally name a date after "bottling" calling one on the same day as the local elections in May, said the Mirror.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt fuelled speculation of an autumn election when he mentioned the possibility of it being in October when discussing plans for the government's next spending review, said the BBC.
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Sunak is "believed to want to hold on until the autumn," agreed the Mirror, "but there is speculation he could be ousted by his own party before then" so may decide to go to the country earlier.
What has Rishi Sunak said about a general election?
"Speculation has been rife" this year about when the prime minister will call the next general election, said the i news site.
In January, during a visit to a youth centre in Mansfield, Nottinghamshire, Sunak said his "working assumption" was that there would be a general election "in the second half of this year".
Last week he ruled out a general election on 2 May, when local and mayoral elections are already taking place across the country.
How is the next general election date chosen?
According to the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act, the current Parliament will be automatically dissolved on 17 December 2024, five years after it first met, unless an election is called earlier by the prime minister. The latest the next general election could be held would be 28 January 2025.
From 2011, the House of Commons had control over when an election would take place, but this was changed after the 2019 election, restoring the power of the prime minister to call elections at a time of their choosing.
When will he call one?
With Labour consistently 20 points ahead in the polls, Downing Street insiders have insisted the prime minister was always more likely to call a general election in the autumn, in the hope that "lower inflation, tax cuts and – hopefully – lower interest rates" can give his party a fighting chance, said the Financial Times.
"The government may seem to everyone else to already be in extra time, but it won't feel that way in Downing Street", said Henry Hill in The Guardian. An autumn election would give Sunak "two years on the job", the first of which he arguably spent "steadying the ship after Liz Truss".
Prime ministers generally avoid campaigning over the summer recess, "and the government has been advised by the security services for it not to clash with the US presidential election on 5 November", said The New Statesman's associate political editor Rachel Cuncliffe.
An October or November election therefore remains "the most reasonable baseline scenario", said Hill. An election then would be "late enough to make use of the time remaining in this parliament, but not so late as to ruin Christmas and drag voters to the polls in January".
It was reported last year by The Sunday Times that Tory election chief Isaac Levido has pencilled in polling day for 14 November. This would allow both the major parties to hold their annual conferences as normal, and "would even give Sunak the chance to announce it during his keynote speech", said the i news site.
A Downing Street source told The Independent that a November election was a "non-starter" because of "the noise a US election would generate likely drowning out any Tory messaging in the final weeks of campaigning". The news site reported that 10 October has been pencilled in for the poll date, while others have speculated 17 October as the most likely option, although this would mean cancelling the lucrative conference season.
If Sunak really wanted to leave it to the last minute he could opt for 12 December, the date of the last general election in 2019. "One of the pros of picking December is that it would give the chancellor time to squeeze in one more Autumn Statement before polling day which could include some pre-election sweeteners such as tax cuts and extra investment," said the i news site.
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Sorcha Bradley is a writer at The Week and a regular on “The Week Unwrapped” podcast. She worked at The Week magazine for a year and a half before taking up her current role with the digital team, where she mostly covers UK current affairs and politics. Before joining The Week, Sorcha worked at slow-news start-up Tortoise Media. She has also written for Sky News, The Sunday Times, the London Evening Standard and Grazia magazine, among other publications. She has a master’s in newspaper journalism from City, University of London, where she specialised in political journalism.
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